Key Notes
On-chain indicators show Bitcoin holders quietly accumulating.
Retail accumulation has been rising, but without euphoric spikes.
CEXs haven’t recorded any strong inflows despite macro tension in Venezuela.
Bitcoin investors have been acting cautiously, but not fearfully, amid macro uncertainty, price volatility, and geopolitical stress.
CryptoQuant analysts have pointed out Bitcoin’s recent momentum with strong data. According to the exchange inflow chart shared in an X post, BTC panic selling is unlikely despite the sensitive market conditions.
Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, and Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Shows
“Despite some price sensitivity, there is no sign of large-scale Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. Panic selling is absent, suggesting the market is cautious but not fearful.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/jKz2snDkYF
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 5, 2026
Data shows that, unlike the previous major geopolitical events, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the escalations of the Israel-Hamas war, and the Israel-Iran war, the arrest of the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, didn’t trigger massive inflows to centralized crypto exchanges.
In simple terms, investors are cautious due to the global tension, but there are no signs of extremely fearful market conditions.
This could lead to short-term price consolidation unless a stronger bearish or bullish catalyst moves the market.
Valuation Metrics Normalize, Not Break
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are showing signs of a cooldown from bearish selloffs. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the fear and greed index rose to 42, showing a neutral zone, for the first time since Oct. 28, 2025.
The global crypto market cap increased by 1% to $3.15 trillion. Bitcoin also gained 1.4% and is trading close to $92,500 at the time of writing.
Polymarket traders expect the BTC price to break above $150,000 in 2026 as the positive sentiment rises, according to a Coinspeaker report.
A CryptoQuant analysis shows that the Bitcoin accumulation across multiple channels has been consistently rising and remained “structurally intact despite volatility.”
The analyst wrote that balances held by accumulating addresses have reached new all-time highs throughout 2024 and into 2025, a pattern historically consistent with periods where long-term conviction outweighs short-term volatility.
Retail accumulation is also rising, though at a slower pace, indicating growing participation from smaller holders without the sharp inflows typically seen near cycle peaks.
Related article: Bitcoin Price to $150,000 in 2026? Polymarket Sets Just 21% Chance
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has cooled from previously overheated levels while remaining above its long-term historical mean.
Similar resets within broader uptrends have tended to extend cycle longevity rather than signal structural tops, according to the CryptoQuant analyst.
