The crypto market is about to face a quiet but important stress test as a wave of previously locked tokens begins flowing into circulation throughout January.
While these releases are not unusual, their size and timing could influence short-term market behavior—especially if demand fails to keep pace.
Key Takeaways
More than $5.5 billion worth of crypto supply is set to unlock during January.
A mix of cliff unlocks and gradual vesting will introduce new tokens into circulation.
Market impact will depend on liquidity and investor sentiment rather than unlocks alone.
Rather than a single event, January’s supply expansion will unfold in layers. Some tokens will enter the market gradually through scheduled vesting, while others will be released all at once, instantly increasing tradable supply. This distinction matters: gradual releases tend to fade into the background, while sudden unlocks can alter price dynamics if holders decide to act quickly.
A concentrated surge in newly liquid supply
A notable feature of this month’s schedule is how concentrated the new supply is. A small group of projects accounts for a disproportionate share of the tokens becoming liquid, meaning market attention is likely to focus less on the total number and more on how these specific assets behave once restrictions lift.
Among them, Ondo represents the largest potential shock. A substantial portion of its supply—previously inaccessible—is set to become transferable, distributed across insiders, contributors, and early backers. Whether those tokens remain dormant or find their way onto the market will be closely watched as a signal of confidence.
Other projects are also contributing meaningfully to the month’s expansion. Bitget Token is preparing a large internal release tied to team allocations and growth initiatives, while Hyperliquid is unlocking tokens for core contributors at a time when its price momentum remains surprisingly strong. That resilience suggests traders may be betting that demand can absorb the new supply, at least in the short run.
The TRUMP token adds another layer to the picture. While smaller in scale than the largest releases, its upcoming unlock is significant relative to its circulating supply and further increases the amount of new liquidity entering the market in a compressed timeframe.
Why unlocks matter more when sentiment is fragile
Token unlocks are not inherently bearish. In many cases, recipients do not immediately sell, particularly when long-term incentives or reputational considerations are involved. Still, an expanding supply changes the balance of risk. Even if selling pressure remains limited, it often takes stronger demand to push prices higher during heavy unlock periods.
Ultimately, January’s unlock calendar is less about any single token and more about market absorption. If liquidity remains healthy and sentiment constructive, the additional supply may be digested with little disruption. If not, these releases could act as a brake on upside momentum, especially for assets with thinner trading depth.
As the year begins, this supply expansion serves as a reminder that crypto markets move not only on narratives and macro trends, but also on the steady mechanics of token distribution—forces that tend to matter most when optimism starts to thin.
