XRP surged 33% from its Dec. 31 lows and gained 11% over the past 24 hours. The token now faces a critical test at the $2.41 level, where technical and on-chain indicators converge to determine whether the rally can extend another 13%.
What Happened: Price Tests Resistance
XRP rebounded from a triple bottom pattern near $1.77, establishing a structural base for the current rally. The 20-day exponential moving average is approaching the 50-day EMA, signaling a potential bullish crossover that historically supports sustained trends rather than short-term bounces.
On-balance volume broke above a descending trendline, indicating buyer participation in the breakout.
However, OBV has not yet made a clear high despite XRP's price trending higher, showing that buying pressure is improving but not accelerating aggressively. The volume indicator has also slowed near the $2.41 zone, with long candle wicks suggesting sellers may be returning at this level.
Long-term holders increased net holdings from roughly 9 million XRP daily to about 47 million since Dec. 30. That represents over 420% growth in net accumulation during the rally phase. However, this accumulation has slowed over the past two days, suggesting buyers are becoming more selective as prices rise.
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Why It Matters: Profit Zone
Long-term holder NUPL, which measures unrealized profit or loss, climbed back to levels last seen in early December around 0.48-0.49.
At those levels, XRP corrected roughly 14% over the following nine days. The market is again entering a zone where profit-taking historically increased.
The cost-basis distribution heatmap shows roughly 1.56 billion XRP accumulated between $2.39 and $2.41. When price revisits such zones, many holders sell to break even, creating resistance.
For the bullish outlook to remain valid, XRP needs a clean daily close above $2.41. If that happens, the next upside target sits near $2.69, representing additional gains of about 13% from current levels.
If XRP fails to reclaim $2.41, initial support lies near $2.26, followed by deeper support around $1.90. The broader structure remains intact as long as the price holds above $1.77.
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