Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) is in the spotlight as AI demand heats up. The company landed about $3 billion in deals with Meta (META) and more than $17.4 billion with Microsoft (MSFT) in Nov 2025. If it brings new capacity online on schedule, those contracts could fuel a major revenue surge.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with NBIS.

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Timing is the name of the game. NBIS only books revenue once connected power is live, so quarterly numbers may swing even if contracts remain solid. Management says demand stayed strong in Q3, with the pipeline growing fast, but any delays could shift results and add short-term volatility.

Tech upgrades are also turning heads. The company rolled out Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 with NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell Ultra compute, closing the gap with CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). Customers are reserving capacity early, signaling confidence in NBIS' infrastructure and future growth.

Valuation looks forward-focused. Revenue estimates climb from roughly $556 million in 2025 to $3.45 billion in 2026 and $6 billion in 2027. With a $22.65 billion market cap and $1.5 billion in net cash, the stock trades at about six times 2026 revenue and 3.5 times 2027, reflecting contracts already in place more than current earnings.

Risks remain: construction delays, supply-chain challenges, and increasing competition from hyperscalers could pressure results. Additional financing may be needed as NBIS scales, possibly diluting shareholders.

For investors, the next few quarters will be key. If NBIS keeps capacity on track, the stock could reward patience. If not, volatility may return.

Watch the next earnings report for the clearest signals of whether NBIS can deliver on its ambitious AI roadmap.