U.S. real home prices have climbed back to levels that rival the peak of the 2006 housing bubble, raising fresh concerns about systemic risk across financial markets , including cryptocurrencies.

According to recent macroeconomic analysis, U.S. inflation-adjusted home prices now sit around 300, surpassing the 2006 bubble peak of roughly 266 by about 13%. By comparison, the long-term historical average is closer to 155, meaning today’s housing market is trading at nearly twice its normal valuation.

The belief that “housing prices never fall” was already disproven once. During the last housing collapse, real estate values dropped roughly 30% from peak to trough, while U.S. equities plunged about 57% between 2007 and 2009.

Could Crypto Be the First Market to Break?

Market analyst Wimar.X argues that the early warning signs are once again aligning and that crypto markets may be the first to suffer a sharp downturn.

According to Wimar.X, housing downturns tend to follow a familiar sequence. Buyers begin to retreat, listings accumulate, and sellers gradually cut prices. Because real estate is widely used as loan collateral, banks respond by tightening credit conditions. This slowdown then spreads across the broader economy, weighing on consumption, employment, and liquidity.

“In past cycles, bonds react first, stocks follow later — and crypto crashes violently at the start,” Wimar.X warned.

? BREAKING: THE 2006 HOUSING COLLAPSE IS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR 2026

Look at this chart.

Real US home prices just hit about 300.

2006 bubble peak was about 266.

That is about 13% ABOVE the 2006 top.

And the long term “normal” level is around 155.

So housing is sitting near… pic.twitter.com/Qqu1M0AOUc

— Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) January 8, 2026

He notes that conditions heading into 2026 are particularly fragile, as housing affordability has deteriorated to unprecedented levels. Wimar.X, who claims a decade of macroeconomic research experience, says he has successfully identified several major market tops in the past, including Bitcoin’s recent all-time high.

While some critics argue that “this time is different,” others acknowledge that history may not repeat exactly but it often rhymes. With real home prices now above subprime-era peaks and housing inventory slowly rising, the risk profile is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Warnings of a Severe Housing Shock

Crypto analyst NoLimit issued an even more dire warning, claiming that more than 50% of Americans could eventually lose their homes due to mortgage stress if current conditions persist.

? REAL ESTATE IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE!!!

More than 50% of people will lose their homes because they can no longer afford to pay.

Just look at the chart.

IT’S A CRIME SCENE.

For over 100 years, the housing market was stable.

It tracked inflation and it was boring.

Then 2006… pic.twitter.com/aQyGkhcHfd

— NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) January 8, 2026

Historically, real estate prices have tracked inflation relatively closely. That relationship broke down during the mid-2000s bubble, when the housing index peaked at 266.4, nearly triggering a collapse of the global financial system. According to NoLimit, the next housing downturn could be even more severe.

“This is a carefully engineered liquidity trap,” he argued. “Cheap debt inflated asset prices, triggered fear of missing out, and pushed households to take on excessive leverage. Now liquidity is being withdrawn.”

With affordability at record lows and the gap between wages and mortgage costs wider than ever, NoLimit believes genuine buyer demand has already vanished. Rising inventory, growing short positions, and tightening credit conditions suggest the system is approaching a breaking point.

Whether the adjustment takes the form of a slow unwind or a sudden collapse remains uncertain. However, both analysts agree on one point: if housing begins to crack, the wealth effect could reverse quickly  and crypto assets may once again absorb the initial shock.