Fidelity's director of global macro says Bitcoin is transitioning away from its historically steep power law growth trajectory toward an internet S-curve pattern, a structural shift that has reignited debate over whether the cryptocurrency's traditional four-year halving cycle remains relevant.
What Happened; Growth Model Shift
Jurrien Timmer posted his analysis on the X platform, noting that Bitcoin has lagged other assets including gold in 2025 after taking a breather in recent months.
The market expert said the premier cryptocurrency is drifting from the power law model — a mathematical framework suggesting Bitcoin follows a predictable growth trajectory correlated with time — and instead tracking an internet S-curve.
This observation has fueled ongoing discussion about whether Bitcoin's halving-driven cycle is dead.
Proponents of that view cite institutional adoption and spot exchange-traded funds as evidence of a new bullish market structure.
Timmer agreed that the halving's influence is diminishing. He rejected the notion that bear markets are finished.
"I'm skeptical, not about the waning power of the halving cycle (with which I agree), but the idea that bear markets are no longer going to happen," Timmer said.
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Why It Matters; Key Price Levels
From a technical standpoint, Timmer identified $65,000 — roughly the previous cycle high — as a crucial support level for Bitcoin. The next significant zone sits around $45,000, where the power law trendline currently resides.
While that trendline remains far below current prices, Timmer noted it could rise to $65,000 if Bitcoin enters a prolonged consolidation phase over the next year.
Exchange data supports the case for extended BTC consolidation.
CryptoQuant figures show total exchange inflows plunged from approximately 43,940 BTC on Dec. 31 to roughly 3,970 BTC by Jan. 5 — a decline exceeding 90%.
Santiment data tracking Spent Coins Age Bands revealed on-chain activity dropped 80% during the same period, falling from around 28,033 BTC to approximately 5,644 BTC. Both young and old coins are moving less frequently, suggesting holders are maintaining positions rather than selling.
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