The Zcash price is under pressure. A governance shock crushed sentiment, the chart broke down on a lower timeframe, and downside risk is now clearly defined.

What makes this move unusual is that large holders have been buying aggressively through the decline, with the ZEC price down 25% week-on-week. Price, sentiment, and whale behavior are now pulling in opposite directions.

Breakdown Pattern and EMA Loss Highlight A 30% Risk Zone

Zcash has triggered a bearish structure that is easy to miss on the daily chart but clear on the 12-hour timeframe. The price completed a head-and-shoulders breakdown after slipping below the neckline near $381. Once that level failed, the pattern activated.

Applying the standard projection from the head to the neckline places the downside target near $253. That implies a potential move of over 30% from current levels if weakness continues.

Zcash Price Structure: TradingView

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This breakdown did not occur alone. The Zcash price also fell below its 200-period exponential moving average on the 12-hour chart. An EMA gives more weight to recent prices and helps define trend strength. Losing the 200 EMA often marks a shift from trend support to trend resistance.

At the same time, the 20-period EMA has rolled below the 100-period EMA. This bearish crossover shows short-term momentum is now weakening faster than the broader trend. If the cross deepens, the ZEC price breakdown path could extend.

EMA Theory Weakens Structure: TradingView

Together, the breakdown structure, EMA loss, and bearish crossover signal indicate that downside pressure is active.

Sentiment Collapse Triggers the Drop as Whales Quietly Accumulate

The key driver behind the breakdown is sentiment.

Following the governance shock, Zcash’s positive sentiment collapsed from nearly 90 to roughly 5 in a few days. That is a drop of more than 90%. Historically, ZEC has responded strongly to shifts in sentiment.

On December 27, a local peak in positive sentiment coincided with a rapid rally. Zcash rose from approximately $511 to $550 over two days, a gain of approximately 8%. Now the opposite is playing out. As sentiment evaporated, bids thinned and price slipped into a breakdown.

Positive Sentiment Drops: Santiment

Yet large holders responded very differently.

Over the past seven days, the top 100 Zcash holders increased their balances by 47.71%. That translates to roughly 15,000 ZEC added.  Standard whale wallets increased holdings by 11.44%, adding roughly 2,000 ZEC, worth about $780,000. Combined, whales accumulated close to 17,000 ZEC, totaling roughly $6 million during the decline.

Whales Holding Amid Weakness: Nansen

Public figure wallets also increased their holdings by nearly 20%.

Retail behavior moved the other way. Exchange balances rose, showing smaller holders were likely selling into fear. The result is a split market. Long-term players are buying quietly, while short-term participants react to collapsing sentiment.

Whale buying has slowed the fall, but it has not stopped the breakdown.

Zcash Price Levels Cling To The EMA-Led Hope

The Zcash price now sits at a clear inflection point.

On the downside, $361 is the first level to watch. A clean break below it would reinforce the bearish case and expose the $326 level, followed by the full breakdown target near $253.

That $253 zone represents the projected 30% move from the head and shoulders pattern.

On the upside, the bearish structure can still be invalidated, but conditions are strict. Zcash must reclaim and hold above the 200-period EMA. The last time this level was reclaimed, in early December, ZEC rallied more than 40% and formed the left shoulder of the pattern.

Zcash Price Analysis: TradingView

Above that, resistance sits near $407, followed by $436 and $482. Clearing these levels would signal sentiment stabilization and renewed trend strength.

For now, Zcash remains caught between technical damage and quiet accumulation. The breakdown fuse has been lit. Whether it fully burns depends on whether sentiment recovers quickly enough to restore the lost structure.