The crypto market may be entering a transition phase, but analyst Ran Neuner says traders should stay grounded. While recent price behavior is encouraging, he believes the market is still in a proving phase rather than a confirmed comeback.
Instead of focusing on day-to-day price moves, Neuner looks at how the market behaves after stress. His takeaway is that crypto is no longer in free fall. Bitcoin has managed to escape its short-term downward structure and is now defending levels that were previously acting as resistance.
Key Takeaways
Market conditions are improving, but confirmation is still missing
Broader participation suggests confidence is slowly returning
A major resistance test will likely decide the next move
What stands out is not the breakout itself, but the response afterward. Price revisited those levels and buyers showed up again. That pattern suggests accumulation rather than panic-driven buying, a subtle but important difference when trying to spot the early stages of a recovery.
This time, it’s not just Bitcoin
Another shift Neuner points to is participation. The recent rebound has not been carried by Bitcoin alone. Several large-cap assets have reclaimed important technical ground at the same time, indicating that capital is spreading across the market instead of clustering into a single asset for safety.
When leadership broadens like this, it often signals that traders are beginning to reposition rather than simply reacting. That does not guarantee higher prices, but it does suggest that confidence is slowly rebuilding under the surface.
Signs of demand returning where it matters
One of the quieter developments Neuner highlights is where buying pressure is coming from. Price differences between U.S.-based venues and offshore exchanges have started to reappear, pointing to renewed interest from American investors.
Historically, sustained rallies tend to begin when U.S. demand leads rather than follows. While this signal has been early or misleading in the past, Neuner sees it as another piece of evidence that selling pressure is no longer dominant.
Beyond indicators and averages, Neuner emphasizes structure. Recent price action shows markets attempting to form a base, with dips being bought sooner and rallies holding longer than before.
At the same time, capital has begun rotating into altcoins, easing Bitcoin’s grip on overall market dominance. This shift usually reflects a rise in risk tolerance, something that rarely happens during deep bearish phases.
“These are transition behaviors,” Neuner notes, “not confirmation.”
One level that will define the trend
Despite the improving backdrop, Neuner is clear that the market is approaching a decisive moment. Bitcoin is moving toward a long-term resistance zone that has historically separated strong uptrends from temporary rebounds.
In past cycles, failure at this area marked the end of recovery attempts and the start of deeper declines. Only a clean break and sustained hold above it would change the broader narrative.
Zooming out, Neuner sees unresolved risk on the weekly chart. Bitcoin is still trading below a level that typically holds during healthy bull markets. In earlier cycles, losing that support often led to failed retests and extended downside before a true bottom was formed.
That scenario remains on the table if the current momentum fades.
Cautious optimism, not celebration
Neuner’s stance is deliberately balanced. The market looks stronger than it did weeks ago, but strength alone is not enough. The next major move will determine whether crypto is building a foundation for a new advance or simply pausing before another leg lower.
For now, the message is restraint. The market is improving – but it still has everything to prove.
