Prediction markets thrive on uncertainty. But in countries at war, uncertainty itself can become a national security issue.
That tension is now playing out in Ukraine, where authorities have moved to curb access to online platforms that allow users to speculate on real-world outcomes tied to the conflict. Among them is Polymarket, a crypto-based marketplace where users trade contracts on political, economic, and geopolitical events.
Key Takeaways
Ukraine moved to restrict Polymarket by classifying it as an unlicensed gambling platform, triggering ISP-level blocks
War-related prediction markets and the monetization of battlefield outcomes pushed the platform into a sensitive national-security zone
Enforcement remains uneven, highlighting how digital platforms can sit between legal bans and technical reality during wartime
Why Prediction Markets Became a Problem
Polymarket does not operate like a traditional bookmaker. Instead, users trade “yes” or “no” outcome contracts with each other, creating prices that function as crowd-sourced probabilities.
During 2025, that mechanism began intersecting uncomfortably with the Russian-Ukrainian war. Markets appeared that attempted to price the likelihood and timing of territorial changes in eastern Ukraine. While traders saw these contracts as information signals, Ukrainian media and officials viewed them differently: as monetized speculation on military outcomes.
The scale amplified the concern. Hundreds of Ukraine-related markets accumulated volumes well into the hundreds of millions of dollars, drawing attention far beyond the crypto community.
How the State Responded
Rather than targeting content directly, Ukrainian authorities acted through licensing law.
The National Commission for State Regulation in the Field of Electronic Communications formally classified Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling service under national rules. As a result, the platform’s domain was added to Ukraine’s public register of restricted online resources, triggering mandatory access limitations by internet service providers.
The order itself was procedural, issued under an existing regulatory resolution. But its implications were broad: once listed, providers are legally required to block access regardless of the platform’s technical structure or global footprint.
Enforcement Is Still Patchy
In practice, the restriction has rolled out unevenly. Some Ukrainian users report complete inaccessibility, while others can still reach the site depending on their ISP.
Officials have not announced a firm deadline for full enforcement, suggesting the process may depend on provider-level implementation rather than a centralized shutdown. This has created a temporary gray zone where the block exists legally, but not uniformly in reality.
Data Use Added Fuel to the Fire
Separate from licensing issues, Ukrainian outlets raised alarms about the use of data from the DeepState OSINT project – a well-known open-source intelligence initiative tracking frontline developments.
Reports alleged that some Polymarket markets relied on DeepState data accessed through an API connection without explicit permission. While regulators have not publicly confirmed whether this factor directly influenced the ban, it intensified scrutiny around how wartime information was being repurposed for speculative trading.
A Global Platform, Uneven Rules
Ukraine is not alone in taking action. Romania has also ordered local providers to restrict access to Polymarket. At the same time, the platform operates legally in other jurisdictions.
In the United States, Polymarket re-entered the market under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, following regulatory clearance related to event-based contracts.
Globally, the platform has grown rapidly. Its valuation was estimated near $9 billion in 2025, and founder Shane Coplan rose to billionaire status at a young age. The platform gained mainstream attention after accurately pricing a decisive Donald Trump election victory in 2024 ahead of official results.
What This Really Signals
Ukraine’s move is less about crypto and more about boundaries. Prediction markets blur the line between information, opinion, and profit. In peacetime, that tension is mostly academic. In wartime, it becomes political.
By classifying Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling service, Ukrainian authorities avoided debating free expression or forecasting ethics. Instead, they applied a clear legal tool to regain control over how war-related outcomes are monetized online.
The broader question remains unresolved: where does forecasting end, and where does exploitation begin?
