Arthur Hayes says bitcoin could make new all-time highs in 2026, even after lagging gold and tech stocks in 2025.

He wrote that bitcoin needs a shift in monetary conditions to regain momentum:

“If gold and the Nasdaq have the juice, how is Bitcoin going to get its groove back? Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen.”

Liquidity is the core catalyst

Hayes pointed to several potential drivers of a “drastic increase” in dollar liquidity in 2026.

These included expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet through “money printing,” falling mortgage rates as liquidity loosens, and commercial banks becoming more willing to lend to US government-backed strategic industries.

Hayes ties military spending to bank financing

Hayes also linked his liquidity view to US defense priorities:

“The US will continue to flex its military muscle, and to do so requires the production of weapons of mass destruction financed by the commercial banking system.”

2025 performance gap: tech and gold beat bitcoin

Hayes said dollar liquidity declined in 2025 and bitcoin fell “accordingly,” while the Nasdaq held up because artificial intelligence had been “nationalized” by China and the US.

He added:

“The liquidity didn’t support our bitcoin portfolios. But let’s not draw the wrong conclusions from Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance. It was as it always is, a liquidity story.”

In 2025, technology stocks were the top-performing S&P 500 sector, delivering a 24.6% total return.

Bitcoin fell 14.40% in 2025, while gold rose 44.40%, according to Curvo data.

Bitcoin was up 12.20% over the past 30 days, per CoinMarketCap.

Hayes also described bitcoin as “monetary technology,” saying it is valuable relative to fiat debasement, pointing to the long-term decline in purchasing power shown in Bitbo’s dollar devaluation chart.