Bitcoin surged this week to touch $97,538 on Wednesday — its highest level in two months. Still, the leading cryptocurrency remains 24% below its October record.
But the asset is “coiled for a decisive move”, according to a report by research firm Kaiko. After the US’ crypto-friendly pivot last year, Bitcoin investors hoping for new heights will have to look beyond Congress and federal regulators, market observers told DL News.
This is what the experts say the big orange coin needs in order to soar again.
The Fed
As usual, when the Federal Reserve makes a move, Bitcoiners listen. Bitcoin has typically done well in a low interest rate environment, and lower rates would help “risk-on” assets like crypto.
Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks has been “somewhat elevated” over the past month and, in turn, more susceptible to what the Fed does, Kaiko said.
US President Donald Trump throughout 2025 pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, at one point threatening to fire him. It’s now expected the Republican will appoint a dovish replacement who will follow through on his demands despite the central bank’s supposed independence.
“The catalysts for a new Bitcoin high will be around the loss of Fed independence,” Director of Derivatives at Amberdata Greg Magadini told DL News.
“Without an independent will to fight inflation, the Fed is likely to react too ‘dovishly’ in order to support fiscal spending. This will undermine US dollar fiat and push hard assets — such as BTC — much higher.”
More institutional involvement
Following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US in 2024, some of the world’s largest institutions bought billions of dollars worth of the cryptocurrency. Global banks, hedge funds, and even universities have gained exposure to Bitcoin via the newly approved products.
If this were to resume in 2026, expect the price of the leading digital asset to surge, Bitwise’s European head of research, André Dragosch, told DL News.
“I do think that ongoing institutional adoption could ultimately provide that upside catalyst [for Bitcoin in 2026],” he said.
Things are already changing, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost told DL News, citing positive flows into Bitcoin ETFs.
This week alone, investors bought $1.6 billion in ETF shares, Darkfost noted. According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin ETFs are on track for their best week since October.
Whales chilling out
Bitcoin whales had a field day in 2025, selling a huge amount of digital coins after the cryptocurrency hit the mythical $100,000 mark, pushing down its price.
But that selling has slowed down — if not completely stopped.
“We can observe that long-term selling has decreased sharply,” Darkfost said, adding that selling pressure coming from the futures market had disappeared.
“The situation has started to evolve, and it is precisely this shift that could pave the way for a more sustainable rally.”
