Polymarket traders are increasingly betting that bitcoin-friendly Kevin Warsh will be President Donald Trump’s pick for the next chair of the Federal Reserve.
Odds on the leading candidates
In the Polymarket contract “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?”, Warsh led with 56% odds.
Rick Rieder was next at 15.8%, while Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller followed at 13.5%.
Kevin Hassett stood at 11%.
The market showed $211,090,971 in total volume, with an end date of Dec. 31, 2026.
What moved the market
The shift came after Trump said he wants to keep Hassett as director of the White House National Economic Council.
Speaking at a health care event at the White House, Trump said:
“I actually want to keep you where you are.”
Trump added that he had not made a final decision.
Bitcoin angle
Warsh has previously said bitcoin could “serve as a sustainable store of value, similar to gold.”
Bitcoin traded around $95,380 after briefly dipping near $94,400 following Trump’s comments.
Market rules and resolution
Polymarket said the contract will resolve based on the next individual Trump, as president, “formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve” by Dec. 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
It defined a formal nomination as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments would not count unless the person is formally nominated.
The primary resolution source would be official information from the U.S. Senate, though “a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
