Europe’s tolerance for crypto-powered prediction markets is wearing thin. A fresh wave of enforcement actions suggests regulators are no longer debating how to classify these platforms - they are moving straight to cutting access.
At the center of the pushback is Polymarket, a platform that lets users trade on political, economic, and real-world outcomes using crypto. While supporters frame it as a market-driven forecasting tool, authorities across Europe increasingly see something else: unauthorized gambling operating outside national law.
Key Takeaways
Hungary has already blocked Polymarket nationwide.
Portugal has ordered a shutdown, with enforcement pending.
European regulators increasingly label prediction markets as illegal gambling.
Political betting and insider risk are driving tougher action.
Two new flashpoints in Southern and Central Europe
In Hungary, regulators have already flipped the switch. Access to Polymarket has been shut off nationwide, with users redirected to an official warning stating that the site is suspected of organizing illegal gambling. The block is described as temporary, but it will remain until authorities finish a legal review – a process that can take months.
Portugal has chosen a different route, at least for now. Regulators there have formally ordered Polymarket to stop offering services, citing licensing violations and a strict ban on political betting. While access has not yet been fully cut, officials confirmed that enforcement is in motion. The trigger appears to have been heavy betting activity tied to a presidential race shortly before results became public, raising red flags around fairness and potential misuse of non-public information.
A pattern, not isolated cases
These moves are not happening in isolation. Over the past few months, Polymarket has quietly disappeared behind digital walls in a growing number of countries. France and Switzerland moved first late last year, both concluding that the platform failed to meet gambling compliance standards. Poland, Belgium and Singapore followed with similar decisions shortly after.
Ukraine also joined the list earlier this month, classifying prediction markets as unlicensed betting under domestic law. By the platform’s own count, users in more than thirty countries are now blocked from accessing Polymarket.
Why regulators are drawing a hard line
The core disagreement is philosophical as much as legal. Polymarket argues that its prices reflect collective expectations, not bookmaker odds. European regulators, however, focus on the outcome-based wagering itself, especially when elections, wars, or government actions are involved.
Concerns escalated further after a controversial trade earlier this year generated unusually large profits tied to a geopolitical event, intensifying scrutiny around insider access and market manipulation. That episode has since spilled into political debate, with lawmakers in multiple countries questioning whether prediction markets can coexist with democratic safeguards.
Growth continues despite the clampdown
Ironically, enforcement has not cooled demand. Trading volumes across prediction markets recently surged to record highs, showing that user interest remains strong even as geographic access shrinks. That tension – explosive growth versus tightening regulation – now defines the sector’s future.
For Polymarket, Europe is quickly becoming a hostile environment. Without regulatory accommodation, the current trajectory points to more blocks, not fewer.
