Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing four simultaneous warning signs as long-term holder selling jumped 61% in a single day while ETF demand hit its lowest point since November and a bearish chart pattern forms near critical support levels.
What Happened: Holder Selling Accelerates
Long-term holders sold approximately 75,950 BTC on Jan. 21. The following day, that figure surged to roughly 122,486 BTC.
The 61% increase represents a sharp acceleration rather than gradual distribution. These sellers remain profitable, with long-term holder NUPL still in the belief zone despite dropping to a six-month low.
On the technical side, a head-and-shoulders pattern is forming on the 12-hour chart with the neckline sitting near $86,430.
A breakdown would imply roughly 9-10% downside.
CryptoQuant analyst @KriptoMevsimi described the current market as potentially "the largest long-term Bitcoin supply release in history," adding that Bitcoin "is not only undergoing a price cycle, but potentially a transition in who holds it and why."
Meanwhile, spot ETFs recorded net selling of approximately $1.19 billion for the week ending Jan. 21. Short-term speculative buyers are filling the gap, with the one-week to one-month holder cohort increasing its supply share from 4.6% to 5.6% since Jan. 11.
Also Read: What Drove Seeker's 200% Spike While Airdrop Recipients Rushed To Sell?
Why It Matters: Support Structure Weakens
The convergence of technical breakdown signals, accelerating long-term selling, weakening ETF flows, and rising speculative participation creates fragile market conditions.
Short-term traders typically buy dips and sell rebounds rather than providing durable support.
Bitcoin needs a strong 12-hour close above $90,340 to ease immediate pressure, with $92,300 representing a more meaningful recovery level. A loss of $86,430 would confirm the bearish pattern breakdown, and with the current buyer composition tilted toward speculation, downside moves could accelerate quickly once support fails.
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