Bettors on Polymarket are placing their biggest bets on Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, as the most likely nominee to become the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, according to data from the crypto-based prediction market.
Contracts tied to Rieder currently carry the highest implied probability in Polymarket’s “Who will Trump nominate as Fed chair?” market, putting him ahead of other widely discussed contenders.
The betting shift reflects growing speculation that President Donald Trump may favor a market-facing technocrat over a traditional central banker when Jerome Powell’s term ends in 2026.
Why Rick Rieder Is Drawing Market Attention
Rieder oversees more than $2 trillion in assets at BlackRock and sits on the firm’s Global Executive Committee, giving him a central role in shaping views on interest rates, inflation, and Treasury market liquidity.
He is a frequent public commentator on monetary policy and financial conditions, often emphasizing market functioning, debt sustainability, and the real-world transmission of Fed decisions.
Unlike past Fed chairs who emerged from academia or the Federal Reserve system, Rieder’s background is rooted in asset management, a distinction some investors see as relevant amid concerns over liquidity strains and fiscal pressures.
Exposure To Crypto And Digital Assets
While Rieder is not publicly identified as a crypto advocate, his leadership role places him close to BlackRock’s expanding digital asset strategy.
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The firm launched the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in 2024, now one of the largest spot Bitcoin ETFs globally.
BlackRock has also positioned tokenization and blockchain-based settlement as long-term upgrades to financial market infrastructure, a view articulated by CEO Larry Fink in recent shareholder letters.
Trump’s Long-Running Rift With The Fed
The betting surge comes against the backdrop of Trump’s prolonged clash with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
During his first term, Trump repeatedly criticized Powell for keeping rates too high and questioned the Fed’s independence, breaking with historical norms.
Since returning to office, Trump has renewed pressure on the central bank, fueling expectations that he will seek a chair aligned more closely with his economic agenda.
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