Could we be heading into a Bitcoin bear market? A new report says the signs are there.
Data released Friday from blockchain research firm CryptoQuant shows that holders of the largest cryptocurrency by market cap are now in the red for the first time since October 2023, with losses now at 69,000 Bitcoins — today worth $6.1 billion — since December.
“The current pattern closely mirrors the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition, when realized profits peaked in January 2021, formed lower highs through 2021, and then flipped into net losses ahead of the 2022 bear market,” CryptoQuant researchers wrote.
Bitcoin was recently priced at $89,195 per coin, according to CoinGecko data, down nearly 30% from its October record of $126,080. Over the past year, the coin has slumped by 16%.
Experts are currently torn on what happens with Bitcoin next, with some market observers this month telling DL News that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is broken and signs are in place for a rally.
What the data shows
CryptoQuant said in its report that things have changed over the past 30 days, with profit taking moving to loss realization.
Investors now are firmly in the red, with annual net realized profits having dropped from 4.4 million Bitcoins in October to 2.5 million Bitcoins now.
The worry, CryptoQuant said, is that this is a drop comparable to March 2022 — when crypto markets entered a brutal bear market.
CryptoQuant first pointed to bear market conditions in December, noting buyer exhaustion for the coin’s listless price action. Bitcoin finished 2025 in the red — the fourth time in its 17-year history it has done so.
What others are saying
Not everyone agrees with CryptoQuant, though.
Experts over the past month told DL News that lower interest rates, expected with a new Federal Reserve chairman, nation state adoption, increased involvement from institutions could all help propel the coin’s price upwards.
Heavy selling from whales — entities holding 1,000 Bitcoins or more — also put downward pressure on the asset’s price last year.
Huge holders of the cryptocurrency have since slowed down their selling, according to on-chain analysts.
