Copper is becoming a binding constraint on the global buildout of AI infrastructure, electrification, and defense systems, according to an analysis by Katusa Research, which warns that demand is accelerating far faster than supply can respond.

Citing S&P Global’s January 2026 copper outlook, Katusa Research said global copper demand is projected to rise from around 28 million metric tonnes today to 42 million tonnes by 2040.

Without major intervention, the firm estimates the market faces a potential shortfall of roughly 10 million tonnes, a gap it describes as structurally unmanageable under current supply timelines.

Copper prices touched a single-day record near $6 per pound this month, a move Katusa Research said reflects how little buffer remains in global inventories.

AI And Power Infrastructure Are Driving Demand

Katusa Research points to AI-driven power consumption as a key accelerant.

According to S&P Global data cited in the report, U.S. data centers accounted for about 5% of electricity demand when ChatGPT launched in late 2022. That share is expected to rise to 14% by 2030.

Each megawatt of AI data center capacity requires an estimated 30 to 47 tonnes of copper for wiring, cooling systems, and power distribution.

In China, where AI facilities are often built with double redundancy, copper intensity is even higher.

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JPMorgan estimates referenced in the analysis suggest AI data centers alone could add roughly 110,000 tonnes of incremental copper demand in 2026.

Electric Vehicles And Defense Add Inelastic Pressure

Electrification in transport is compounding the strain.

The report noted that battery electric vehicles use nearly three times as much copper as internal combustion vehicles, with global EV-related copper demand projected to rise from about 2.6 million tonnes today to 6.3 million tonnes annually by 2040.

Defense spending is adding another layer of inelastic demand.

NATO members have committed to materially higher military budgets, and modern weapons systems, communications infrastructure, and drones are copper-intensive, the firm said.

Supply Can’t Scale Fast Enough

On the supply side, the report highlighted falling ore grades, operational disruptions, and permitting delays.

S&P Global data shows new copper mines take an average of 17 years from discovery to first production.

UBS forecasts cited by the firm show copper deficits widening from about 230,000 tonnes in 2025 to more than 400,000 tonnes in 2026, with inventories already thin.

“The world needs 50% more copper,” Katusa Research said, “and the supply pipeline simply can’t respond in time.”

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