Bitcoin extended its weekend slide early Monday morning, trading as low as $86,0000 as a broader risk-off mood hit risk assets.

Macro risk-off takes hold

Rick Maeda, a research associate at Presto Research, said the move was not driven by bitcoin-specific headlines.

He told The Block:

“The move in crypto to start the week was driven by a broad macro risk-off impulse rather than crypto-specific news.”

Maeda pointed to rising U.S. government shutdown risk, fueled by funding uncertainty and political deadlock, as the key catalyst pressuring markets.

Shutdown odds cited by analysts

Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, said political risk premiums have risen as negotiations stall.

He added that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown had climbed to 75% on Polymarket.

ETF flows and institutional positioning

Sentiment also weakened as U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their worst week since February 2025, with about $1.33 billion in net outflows in the week ended Jan. 23.

Those flows can be tracked alongside broader U.S. spot ETF positioning on Bitbo’s U.S. bitcoin ETFs dashboard and ETF flows page.

Liu said institutional demand looked cautious but targeted, citing selective buying in industry leaders such as ARK Invest’s disclosed purchases of Coinbase-related equities.

What traders are watching next

Analysts said this week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and U.S. producer price index data are key near-term macro catalysts.

Maeda also said ETF flow stabilization and bitcoin’s ability to hold recent support levels will be important signals.