Bitcoin is showing growing signs of macro stress as it trades below its 12-month moving average for the first time since 2022, a development that historically carries deflationary implications.
The move comes as the price hovers near $87,000, a level now acting as a critical line in the sand for market sentiment. The break below this long-term trend has reopened the debate over whether the flagship crypto is entering a prolonged consolidation phase or setting the stage for a deeper correction.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin has fallen below its 12-month moving average for the first time since 2022, signaling potential deflationary pressure.
The $100,000 level for Bitcoin mirrors the 5% yield ceiling for US 30-year Treasuries, with both acting as major macro resistance points.
Support near $87,000 is critical, with $78,000 emerging as the next major downside level if current support fails.
According to analysis shared by Mike McGlone of Bloomberg, Bitcoin’s struggle to regain momentum below $100,000 mirrors stress signals emerging in traditional markets, particularly US government bonds. McGlone argues that Bitcoin and long-dated Treasuries are now telling a similar story about slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.
Bonds and Bitcoin Reflect the Same Macro Pressure
One of the more striking parallels highlighted in the analysis is the behavior of the US 30-year Treasury yield. Despite repeated attempts, long-term yields have failed to remain sustainably above the 5% level. This inability to hold higher yields suggests waning confidence in aggressive growth and inflation scenarios.
In McGlone’s framework, Bitcoin’s $100,000 level functions much like the 5% threshold for 30-year Treasuries – a psychological ceiling that markets have struggled to decisively break. Both assets peaked in 2025, with Bitcoin reaching roughly $126,000 while the 30-year yield topped out near 5.15%. As of late January 2026, those figures have retreated to around $88,600 for Bitcoin and approximately 4.83% for the bond yield, reinforcing the idea that broader macro forces are pulling risk assets lower.
Technical Picture Highlights Fragile Support
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin is now sitting directly on a major support zone around $87,000. Data from onchain analysis models show this area has repeatedly acted as a stabilizing point during previous pullbacks. However, the margin for error is thin.
If this level fails to hold, the next high-probability support zone sits near $78,000, where historical buying interest and structural demand previously emerged. A move toward that area would likely test investor confidence and could accelerate risk-off positioning across the crypto market.
Importantly, the current setup is not being driven by panic but by gradual pressure. Price action suggests controlled distribution rather than a sharp capitulation, aligning with McGlone’s view that Bitcoin may be transitioning into a macro-driven consolidation phase rather than a sudden bear market.
A Market Searching for Direction
The broader implication of these signals is that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro asset, responding to the same forces influencing bonds, liquidity conditions, and growth expectations. As long as long-term yields struggle to rise and financial conditions remain tight, Bitcoin may find it difficult to reclaim higher levels quickly.
At the same time, holding above the $87,000 region could allow the market to stabilize and rebuild momentum, particularly if bonds continue to signal easing pressure ahead. The next few weeks are likely to be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its footing or if the macro headwinds prove too strong.
