Solana (SOL) active addresses nearly doubled to 4.8 million since the start of 2026, as traders increase exposure to the network ahead of a potential U.S. government shutdown that Polymarket predicts has an 81% chance of occurring by Jan. 31.
What Happened: SOL Activity Surges
On-chain metrics show active addresses on the Solana network climbed from 2.5 million to 4.8 million in recent weeks. The surge suggests user participation has returned to the blockchain, with activity driven by network usage rather than speculation alone.
Derivatives data reveals institutional interest is also building. SOL's total open interest jumped more than $34 million in the past 24 hours.
Such sharp increases in open interest have historically preceded rallies in the token's price. Rising open interest typically signals stronger market conviction among large traders and funds.
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Why It Matters: Macro Risks Persist
Broader economic uncertainty continues to weigh on risk assets globally. Polymarket data shows an 81% probability of a U.S. government shutdown by month's end, a scenario that could unsettle both traditional and crypto markets.
Risk assets often struggle during such periods as investors grow cautious.
Still, SOL's recent metrics indicate traders may be prioritizing crypto-specific fundamentals over short-term macroeconomic concerns.
Rising active addresses point to organic demand, while increased open interest signals institutional confidence. However, elevated leverage introduces risk if macro-driven volatility triggers rapid position unwinding.
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