As global markets reel from a broad selloff, JPMorgan is pushing back against the prevailing fear. The bank argues that Bitcoin’s sharp decline has created a more compelling long-term setup than gold, even as investors rush toward traditional safe havens.
Key Takeaways
JPMorgan says Bitcoin is deeply oversold and more attractive long term than gold.
Prices below mining costs point to capitulation-level stress.
Extreme pessimism today could set up a future rebound.
In a note to clients, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted the extreme divergence between the two assets. Gold has climbed roughly one-third since autumn, while Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its October peak.
According to the strategist, this gap reflects sentiment-driven behavior rather than a decisive verdict on Bitcoin’s long-term role as a store of value.
Price Below Production Signals Stress
One of JPMorgan’s key arguments is that Bitcoin has slipped well below its estimated cost of production, which the bank places near $87,000. Historically, trading beneath production costs has coincided with miner stress and forced selling, conditions that often appear near market bottoms.
While unprofitable miners may eventually exit and lower those costs, the current discount remains unusually large.
ETF Outflows Show Widespread Risk Aversion
Negative sentiment is not limited to price action. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see steady outflows, signaling that both retail and institutional investors are stepping back simultaneously. JPMorgan views this broad-based retreat as a sign that pessimism may already be largely priced in.
The note also points to a record-low Bitcoin-to-Gold volatility ratio, now around 1.5. This shift is driven not only by Bitcoin’s weakness but also by rising volatility in gold itself.
On a volatility-adjusted basis, JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin would need a vastly larger market capitalization to match private-sector investment levels in gold, underscoring the scale of potential upside over a longer horizon.
A Long-Term Bet, Not a Short-Term Call
JPMorgan cautions that such a re-rating is not realistic in the near term. Still, the bank believes the current environment of fear, forced selling, and crowded gold trades could mark an attractive entry point for investors willing to look past the broader market crash and focus on long-term positioning rather than short-term turbulence.
