Solana confirmed a bearish head and shoulders pattern after losing a key higher-timeframe support zone, shifting technical bias lower. SOL traded near $81. 3 at the time of analysis, down roughly 11.9% over the past seven days and more than 45% from its late-2025 high above $170. The breakdown unfolded as crypto markets extended a third straight session of losses, with Bitcoin down more than 20% earlier this week before stabilizing near $65,800.
The timing matters for traders because altcoins like Solana historically amplify Bitcoin’s downside during risk-off phases. As BTC tested the $60,000–$63,000 2024 breakout base, selling pressure cascaded across high-beta assets, tightening liquidity and accelerating liquidations. That macro stress now frames Solana’s technical setup.
What the head and shoulders breakdown signal for SOL?
A head and shoulders pattern is a reversal structure that marks a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend once the “neckline” support fails. In Solana’s case, crypto analyst Alex Clay flagged a confirmed neckline break on the weekly chart, invalidating the prior consolidation base that had supported multiple rebounds in 2025. For traders, that shift signals that rallies are more likely to be sold rather than extended.
#SOL started to look bad?
It turned into a confirmed H&S and important support zone is lost!
H&S target fits the key level of 42$? See you there?#Solana $SOL pic.twitter.com/WuyMrKgjs9
— Alex Clay (@cryptclay) February 4, 2026
Clay highlighted that the measured move from the pattern points toward $42, aligning with a long-term horizontal demand zone. From current levels, that implies a potential drawdown of more than 60%, underscoring why this setup has drawn attention across desks monitoring SOL breaks key support dynamics.
Former support flips to resistance as downside levels emerge
On the daily chart, Solana has decisively broken below a key support zone that had underpinned multiple rebounds. This former support, now turning into resistance around the $120–$125 area, continues to cap upside attempts unless reclaimed with strong volume confirmation. Price is trading well below the declining 50-day moving average, which has crossed under the 200-day, reinforcing a bearish trend structure.
Meanwhile, the daily RSI has dipped into the low-20s, signaling deeply oversold conditions and short-term exhaustion, though momentum remains weak as MACD stays firmly in negative territory.
Another analyst, UB, outlined a potential reaction zone in his X post in the low $100s, followed by a continuation toward the mid-$70s. The $75 area coincides with prior demand and sits above the more aggressive $42 target, offering an intermediate level where short-term traders may look for stabilization. This setup mirrors broader altcoin pressure tied to the broader crypto sell-off.
Solana / $SOL
Looking for bounces to low $100s (Red) before a move down to ~$75. pic.twitter.com/kFtjZybcVM
— UB (@CryptoUB) February 4, 2026
Market structure pressure extends beyond Solana
Solana breakdown does not exist in isolation. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI dipped into the 22–28 range, a deeply oversold reading that historically coincides with heightened volatility for correlated assets. While Bitcoin exchange balances continue to decline—often a long-term constructive signal—near-term ETF outflows totaling billions of dollars have weighed on sentiment.
As long as Bitcoin remains vulnerable below $66,000, Solana is likely to stay under pressure. Even investors with a longer-term Solana market outlook are likely to wait for confirmation that selling pressure has exhausted.
Risk balance: what could invalidate the bearish case?
The primary counter-argument is that extreme market stress often produces false breakdowns. A swift reclaim of the $125 resistance, paired with improving momentum and a daily RSI push back above 35-40, would weaken the head and shoulders thesis. Stabilization in Bitcoin, especially if ETF flows turn positive, could also ease pressure on SOL.
Until then, Solana remains technically vulnerable. Traders are watching $100 as near-term psychological support, $75 as a structural demand zone, and the $60–$65 area as an intermediate downside objective, with $42 representing the longer-term measured target if the broader breakdown fully plays out.
How price reacts at those levels will determine whether this move evolves into a deeper trend shift or a volatile shakeout within a broader crypto cycle.
Bitcoin Hyper: More than a Memecoin
Why invest in memecoins when the market is bleeding? Bitcoin Hyper is drawing capital even in this risk-off environment, raising over $31.6 million with less than 30 hours before its next price increase. Unlike typical hype-driven meme coins, it is backed by real infrastructure — a Layer 2 network powered by Solana’s Virtual Machine (SVM), complete with native bridging and staking. In weak markets, projects that combine attention with utility tend to survive — and that’s the bet Bitcoin Hyper is offering.
