In a wide-ranging interview aired on February 9, 2026, billionaire investor Ray Dalio issued a blunt warning about the future of money, state power, and financial freedom.
Key Takeaways
Ray Dalio says CBDCs are inevitable but would eliminate privacy and expand government control.
He warns programmable money could enable taxation, account freezes, and capital controls.
The U.S. is resisting for now, with no active plans for a digital dollar.
Dalio sees U.S. debt pushing the system toward a major financial crisis.
Speaking with Tucker Carlson, Dalio argued that Central Bank Digital Currencies are likely unavoidable globally, even if their risks are widely understood.
According to Dalio, governments will ultimately push forward with CBDCs because of their efficiency and ease of use. But he stressed that convenience should not be confused with safety, calling digital state-backed money a major step toward tighter financial control.
CBDCs and the End of Financial Privacy
Dalio described CBDCs as an extremely powerful control mechanism. In his view, a fully digital government currency would give authorities real-time visibility into every transaction, effectively eliminating financial privacy.
He warned that such systems could allow governments to tax citizens directly, freeze or confiscate funds, impose capital controls, or shut individuals out of the financial system altogether if they fall out of political favor. Dalio emphasized that this level of oversight would fundamentally change the relationship between citizens and the state.
Another concern he raised was programmability. CBDCs could be designed to restrict how and where money is spent, enforce foreign exchange limits, or automatically comply with sanctions. Dalio also expects most CBDCs to be non-interest-bearing, meaning they would steadily lose value over time as fiat currencies depreciate.
Why the United States Is Holding Back for Now
Despite rapid progress on CBDCs in other parts of the world, Dalio noted that the United States remains an outlier. He pointed to an executive order signed in early 2025 by Donald Trump that explicitly banned the creation and use of a U.S. CBDC.
That position was reinforced again in February 2026, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated there are currently no efforts underway to develop one. Dalio suggested this resistance reflects deep concerns in Washington about privacy, civil liberties, and government overreach.
A Looming Debt Crisis and “Financial Heart Attack”
Dalio’s concerns extend far beyond digital currencies. He warned that the U.S. is approaching what he described as a systemic breaking point driven by excessive debt. With national debt now around $38.4 trillion, he sees a growing risk that demand for U.S. government bonds may fail to keep up with supply.
If that happens, Dalio believes the central bank would be forced to step in more aggressively, effectively monetizing the debt. That process, he warned, would weaken the currency further and intensify inflationary pressures, creating what he called a potential “financial heart attack.”
Stage Five of the Supercycle and Rising Polarization
Dalio framed today’s risks within his broader supercycle framework. He believes the U.S. is firmly in the fifth stage of a long-term cycle, characterized by heavy debt burdens, extreme political polarization, and widening social divides.
He warned the country is nearing the sixth and final stage, where order begins to break down. Citing polling data, Dalio noted that roughly a quarter of the population would be willing to fight violently for their political beliefs, a signal that compromise and institutional trust are rapidly eroding.
Gold as a Strategic Anchor in Unstable Times
Against this backdrop, Dalio reaffirmed his long-standing support for gold. He described it as the only form of money that is not someone else’s liability, making it uniquely resilient during periods of monetary stress.
Dalio continues to recommend allocating roughly 5% to 15% of a portfolio to gold, not as a speculative bet but as protection against currency debasement, debt crises, and systemic shocks.
A World Moving Toward Capital War
Dalio also warned that the global system is entering an era of “capital war,” where financial assets, sanctions, and capital flows are increasingly used as geopolitical weapons. In such an environment, he argued, wealth preservation becomes more difficult, and financial independence becomes harder to maintain.
Taken together, Dalio’s message was clear: CBDCs may be inevitable, but they arrive at a moment of extreme debt, polarization, and geopolitical tension, making their implications far more serious than a simple technological upgrade to money.
