Berachain, or BERA crypto, has stunned the market with a massive 150% rally these past 3 days, running from low $0.4 to $1.4, before retracing now to $0.76 level, although it is still posting more than 80% gain this week alone.
Despite a big unlock involving 63.75 million tokens, representing a 41% increase in circulating supply, last week, Bera unexpectedly opted to run despite how bearish token unlock usually is. This counterintuitive price action was primarily driven by the expiration of a refund clause for investors like Brevan Howard Digital, which triggered a violent Short Squeeze against traders positioning for a dump.
Right now, the current market data shows BERA maintaining strength well above its pre-unlock levels, even if it is still 95% under its recorded all-time high.
(source – CoinGecko)
Token Unlocks and The Bearish Case
Historically, unlocking a substantial portion of a token’s supply creates immediate selling pressure as early investors look to realize profits. With the Berachain network expanding its float by nearly half, the textbook market reaction would be a sharp correction downward. Traders often front-run these events, selling in anticipation of diluted value.
What’s happening on berachain $BERA?
Any news? pic.twitter.com/0a05zj1Wet
— Jeremy (@Jeremybtc) February 11, 2026
However, BERA flipped this narrative completely. The catalyst was not just the unlock itself, but the specific legal mechanics surrounding it. The expiration of a refund clause removed a massive “overhang” of uncertainty. Instead of rushing to exit, the removal of this clause signaled long-term conviction from major holders. This dynamic mirrors scenarios where Bitcoin whales accumulate supply during periods of feared volatility, effectively trapping bearish traders who expected a capitulation that never arrived.
Institutional Absorption Eliminates Selling Pressure: Can Bera Crypto Sustain it?
The explosive move was fueled by the strategic positioning of institutional backers. The resolution of the refund clause tied to Brevan Howard and other early investors acted as a bullish signal, indicating that these large entities were not planning to liquidate their positions immediately. This institutional steadfastness created a floor for the price.
On a technical level, BERA is failing to continue its price discovery phase. The chart structure needs to flip this critical level into support soon, so it can accommodate another leg.
(source – TradingView)
What This Means for Post-Unlock Trading Strategies
For investors, the BERA event serves as a crucial lesson: the structure of an unlock is often more important than the size. A 41% supply increase is usually bearish, but when combined with a mechanism that incentivizes holding or confirms institutional backing, it can become a bullish catalyst.
We should look beyond the headline numbers and evaluate the incentives of the unlocking parties. Just because tokens are unlocked doesn’t mean they hit the order book, and betting against high-conviction holders can result in painful liquidations.
