Bitcoin's (BTC) market-value-to-realized-value ratio has fallen to 1.1 - its lowest reading since early 2023, when BTC traded near $23,000.
The metric is now approaching the critical level of 1.0, a threshold that has historically coincided with cycle bottoms and preceded extended rallies.
Bitcoin was trading near $67,000 on Thursday, down roughly 46% from its all-time high of approximately $126,200 reached on Oct. 6, 2025.
What the Data Shows
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized cap the aggregate price at which all coins last moved on-chain.
When the ratio drops below 1.0, the broader supply is theoretically sitting at an unrealized loss, and the asset is considered undervalued by this metric.
CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan noted that the MVRV last dipped below 1.0 in early 2023, during a period that preceded a rally of more than 500% over the following two years.
At Bitcoin's October 2025 peak, the ratio stood at 2.28 - high, but notably lower than the extreme readings above 3.5 that characterized tops in 2017 and 2021.
That distinction matters, Crypto Dan argued. If the bull cycle's peak was unusually subdued, the subsequent decline may not follow the same pattern as past bear markets either.
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Z-Score Deepens the Case
A related metric - the MVRV Adaptive Z-Score - tells a more aggressive story. CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain reported a reading of -2.66 on Thursday, a level the analyst described as a "capitulation zone."
That Z-score reading is lower than the levels recorded at the bear market bottoms of 2015, 2018, the March 2020 crash, and the 2022 capitulation.
Glassnode data separately showed long-term holders reducing exposure by roughly 245,000 BTC in a single day on Feb. 6, a pace of distribution that mirrors patterns seen before prior cycle bottoms.
Why Caution Is Warranted
Not all analysts read these indicators as an imminent bottom signal.
Several forecasts cited by Cointelegraph project a potential BTC bottom in Q4 2026, with price targets as low as $40,000 to $50,000.
Bitcoin's realized profit-to-loss ratio is also approaching 1.0, a threshold where realized losses begin to exceed profits across the network.
In past cycles, that crossover has accompanied extended sell-offs rather than immediate recoveries.
The MVRV ratio is one data point in a complex market - not a timing tool.
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