Bitcoin’s surge toward the $124,000–$126,000 zone in early October 2025 may have marked the turning point of the cycle rather than the start of a new leg higher.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin likely entered a bear cycle after its October 2025 peak.
Technical indicators confirm a sustained downtrend.
A bottom range between $32,000 and $60,000 is in focus, with $49,000 as a key level.
If the cycle follows history, a potential low could form by October 2026.
According to market analyst Colin Talks Crypto, the rally that capped early Q4 enthusiasm likely transitioned into a full bear phase shortly afterward.
By late January 2026, he estimated the market was already roughly 32–35% through a standard one-year correction cycle. If that historical rhythm holds, the downturn is not in its early days – it is already well underway.
Bear Structure Taking Shape
Technical signals support the argument that Bitcoin has shifted into a sustained corrective environment. The asset has been trading below both its 21-week moving average and the 200-day EMA – levels often viewed as dividing lines between bull momentum and extended downside phases.
In terms of price targets, Colin outlines a broad potential bottoming range between $32,000 and $60,000. Within that zone, $49,000 stands as his primary projection. That area also aligns with levels other market participants consider a key structural floor where long-term buyers may step back in.
If prior cycle patterns repeat, a final low could emerge around October 2026 – approximately one year after the euphoric peak.
Macro Pressure And Liquidity Shock
The reversal from October highs unfolded alongside broader macro turbulence. On October 10, 2025, markets were rattled after a 100% tariff announcement on Chinese imports, triggering a sharp liquidation cascade. Roughly $19 billion was wiped out in a single day, amplifying volatility across risk assets, including crypto.
Institutional flows also turned defensive. Since the all-time highs, more than $1.3 billion has exited Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, reflecting a cooling of appetite among larger investors.
Sentiment Shift Confirmed By CBBI
Colin’s Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI), which aggregates nine different market and on-chain indicators, now signals that the euphoric phase has faded. The index suggests the market is transitioning away from peak conditions and toward a deeper corrective structure.
He argues that many investors only recognize bear markets after substantial drawdowns have already occurred. In his view, the current technical landscape and macro backdrop indicate that recognition phase may now be spreading.
If the one-year cycle framework remains intact, the coming months could define whether Bitcoin follows its historical rhythm – or rewrites it.
