Coinbase could see its stablecoin revenue grow by as much as seven times its current level under the GENIUS Act, which established the first federal framework for stablecoin issuance when it was signed into law in Jul. 2025, according to Bloomberg analysts Paul Gulberg and Samuel Radowitz, who note that the exchange already generated an estimated $1.35 billion in stablecoin-related income last year — a 48% jump from $911 million in 2024.
What Happened: Stablecoin Revenue Forecast
Gulberg and Radowitz published an analysis projecting that Coinbase's revenue tied to USDC (USDC), the dollar-backed token issued by Circle, could increase between two and seven times from current levels under favorable regulatory conditions.
The revenue stream is derived from interest earned on reserves backing USDC, which are primarily invested in U.S. Treasuries and other low-risk instruments.
Stablecoin income accounted for 19% of Coinbase's total annual revenue in 2025. Unlike trading fees, which fluctuate with market volatility, this segment proved resilient even as Bitcoin (BTC) prices declined sharply in late 2025 and fourth-quarter revenue dropped 20%.
Coinbase shares, trading under the ticker COIN, surged toward $185 during Wednesday's session, a 22% gain in 24 hours.
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Why It Matters: Regulatory Tailwind
The GENIUS Act removed key barriers that had limited USDC use in cross-border payments and merchant settlements, and broader adoption by businesses and financial institutions would expand USDC circulation, requiring more Treasury-backed reserves and generating additional interest income that Coinbase shares in. Whether the exchange reaches the upper end of the Bloomberg projection depends in part on whether it can continue offering rewards to customers who hold USDC — a mechanism the analysts say could accelerate adoption more rapidly.
Even if reward programs are scaled back during ongoing negotiations on the CLARITY Act, the clearer regulatory environment is still expected to support meaningful growth in stablecoin usage.
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