A bitcoin bottom signal that appeared in 2023—before a roughly 130% rally in 2024—has flashed again this week, reviving debate over whether BTC is nearing another bullish inflection point.

Risk index repeats a 2023-style setup

Swissblock said bitcoin has spent 25 consecutive days in its “extreme high risk” zone, the longest stretch on record and above the 23-day peak seen in 2023.

Historically, extended time in the zone has lined up with late-stage drawdowns or bottoming signals.

MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed to a BTC price versus supply-in-profit/loss view that shows price interacting with levels that previously marked bottoming phases.

In 2023, the shift from high risk to low risk coincided with the start of a strong expansion.

Demand and positioning still look fragile

RugaResearch said 30-day apparent demand continues to flip between positive and negative.

It added that while selling pressure has faded, sustained buying demand has not held dominance.

Drawdown history, ETF flows, and inflation set a different backdrop

Ecoinometrics said recoveries from 50% drawdowns rarely resolve quickly, excluding the 2020 COVID period that was boosted by aggressive policy intervention.

On flows, gold ETFs have exceeded spot Bitcoin ETF flows on a 90-day rolling basis since August, while bitcoin funds show a negative 90-day rolling average of about –$2.06 billion.

Ecoinometrics also cited sticky inflation, with headline PCE near 2.9% year-on-year and core near 3.0%.

Key levels and a bearish liquidity regime

CMCC Crest managing partner Willy Woo said any relief rally toward $70,000–$80,000 could face renewed selling, arguing the “broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating.”

Woo added that $45,000 aligns with the prior bear market, with $30,000 and $16,000 as historical support tied to long-term trend preservation.