Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing a price bottom as the four-year halving cycle enters its down phase, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck said, dismissing more complex explanations for the cryptocurrency's recent sluggish performance.
What Happened: VanEck CEO Calls Cycle Bottom
Van Eck told CNBC on Monday that his firm's 2026 outlook rests on a straightforward thesis. Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins and the halving cycle — which cuts miner rewards in half every four years — remain the dominant forces shaping price.
"There's been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year," he said. "So that's why we are in a Bitcoin bear market."
He added that observers may be overcomplicating recent price action. "I think we are making a bottom," van Eck said.
At the time of his remarks, BTC was trading at $68,400, up 2.6% over 24 hours and 7.6% over the past week. The recovery coincided with escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, following U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran and retaliatory Iranian strikes on Israel.
Van Eck suggested the conflict may have contributed to the bounce, noting that crypto payment rails could serve as a tool for moving funds outside traditional banking systems during periods of instability. "When one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you gonna move money around?" he said, pointing to the crypto-friendly posture of the UAE and Dubai.
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Why It Matters: Cycle Debate Intensifies
The four-year cycle has been a subject of growing disagreement among crypto analysts. Some argue the pattern still holds; others contend it has been weakened by institutional adoption, exchange-traded fund demand, a weakening U.S. dollar and shifting regulatory conditions.
Van Eck's comments place him firmly in the camp that views the cycle as intact. His willingness to frame 2026 as a bear market year — while simultaneously calling a bottom — suggests his firm sees limited further downside and expects a gradual recovery.
The geopolitical angle adds a separate layer. If crypto payment infrastructure gains relevance during periods of conflict and sanctions pressure, it could introduce a demand driver that operates independently of the halving cycle altogether.
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