VanEck CEO Jan van Eck said Bitcoin is close to its bottom, arguing that the market has been driven more by the four-year halving cycle than by shifting narratives around fundamentals.
Cycle, supply, and the 21 million cap
Speaking with CNBC on Monday, van Eck said his firm expects Bitcoin to gradually start picking up this year.
He framed the recent weakness as a typical “fourth year” drawdown in the cycle tied to miner issuance cuts and Bitcoin’s hard cap.
Van Eck said:
“There’s been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom.”
Debate over whether the four-year pattern still holds
The four-year cycle has been debated as institutional participation has grown.
Some analysts argue the pattern may be less reliable given demand from spot exchange-traded funds and other market structure changes.
Price action and the Iran conflict backdrop
Bitcoin was up about 2.6% over the past 24 hours and about 7.6% over the past seven days, trading near $68,400 at the time of writing.
Its move higher came as geopolitical tensions escalated after the US and Israel initiated air strikes on Iran, followed by Iranian strikes on Israel.
Van Eck suggested the recovery may be partly linked to the conflict and the use of crypto payment rails.
He said:
“So it could be that if we wanted to move money to good actors, we would wanna use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through decrepit Iranian banks that we don’t control.”
