Dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin (BTC) over the past five years produced stronger returns than a comparable S&P 500 strategy, according to backtested simulation data - though the same approach has left investors who started buying in early 2024 sitting on unrealized losses.
With Bitcoin down roughly 44% from its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000, the data has drawn renewed attention from investors reassessing entry strategies.
The analysis draws on DCA calculator tools, a Swan Bitcoin analyst's February comparison, and a power-law price model published by researcher Sminston With. All forward-looking figures are model outputs, not guaranteed returns.
What the Historical Data Shows
A $250 weekly Bitcoin purchase beginning January 2021 would have resulted in $67,500 invested over five years, accumulating approximately 1.65 BTC at an average cost of around $40,884. At Bitcoin's current price near $71,000, that stack carries an estimated unrealized gain of roughly 76%.
By contrast, the same $250 weekly strategy beginning January 2024 - at higher average prices - would have produced a 6% unrealized loss at current levels. The divergence illustrates how entry period materially affects short-term outcomes even within the same methodology.
Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston compared a $100 weekly Bitcoin DCA against the S&P 500 over five years in a February post.
The Bitcoin strategy produced a $42,508 return (62.9%) versus $37,470 (43.6%) for equities - a gap of roughly 19 percentage points on cumulative returns, per his analysis.
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What Forward Models Project
Bitcoin Well's DCA simulator, using a Bitcoin power-law growth curve, estimates that a $250 weekly buy beginning January 2026 would accumulate roughly 0.30 BTC by March 2030. Under the model's median price assumption of $430,278, that position would be valued at approximately $129,000 on a $54,250 total investment.
The model also produces a lower band near $274,000 and an upper scenario near $900,000 - a wide deviation range that reflects the power-law's known sensitivity to assumption inputs.
A November 2025 study by researcher Sminston With found that even buying 20% above the then-current price and exiting 20% below the projected 2035 median still produced nearly 300% gains after a decade in simulation. The analysis concluded that holding period length had more influence on outcomes than entry price.
All projections assume Bitcoin continues to follow its historical logarithmic growth trajectory - an assumption that has no guarantee of holding across future market cycles.
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