Binance Research said the US midterm elections could become the next catalyst for a recovery in both Bitcoin and equities, citing historical post-election performance.

According to Binance, the 12 months following US midterms produced an average 19% gain in the S&P 500 and a 54% rise for Bitcoin across the three post-midterm years on record.

The firm wrote:

“Once election outcomes are determined and uncertainty is resolved, markets have historically staged powerful rallies.”

Midterm years have coincided with deep drawdowns

Binance noted that Bitcoin has posted negative returns in prior midterm years, including a 56% drawdown in 2014, a 73% decline in 2018, and a 64% retracement in 2022.

Those declines were followed by rebounds in subsequent years, Binance said, framing the year after midterms as the “strongest window in the cycle.”

The report was published roughly eight months ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026 midterm elections, which will determine the makeup of the 120th Congress.

Oil spike adds fresh pressure

Binance also warned that near-term direction may be driven more by the US-Israel-Iran conflict than by election dynamics.

Crude oil briefly surged to $95 per barrel on Thursday as the conflict entered its 13th day.

Reuters reported that two fuel tankers were scorched by explosive-laden Iranian boats, and an Iranian military spokesperson told the outlet that the world should prepare for oil prices of $200 per barrel.

Exchanges watch a range-bound Bitcoin

Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange Bitget, told Cointelegraph:

“In this environment, crypto’s higher-beta profile means its upside potential could still exceed traditional equities should liquidity conditions stabilize once political uncertainty clears.”

Analysts at Bitunix added:

“Currently, BTC is fluctuating repeatedly below the $70,000 level, indicating that market activity remains dominated by liquidity sweeps both above and below.”

They said Bitcoin may remain range-bound until macro events provide clearer signals.