Journalists in Argentina have flagged funny business on crypto-powered betting site, Polymarket, alleging that government insiders are betting on inflation figures.
Bets were made on what Argentina’s inflation rate would be before official figures were released this week.
“Inflation data was leaked before its official publication, and the manipulation was clearly visible in online betting,” reporter Andres Lerner of local newspaper Ámbito Financiero wrote on X, posting a screenshot of the “Argentina Monthly Inflation — February” betting page.
Otro escándalo: información privilegiada en el INDEC intervenido. Se filtró el dato de inflación antes que se publique y se vio clarita la jugada en las apuestas online y en la demanda de instrumentos atados a inflación. pic.twitter.com/Nf0Zw7LuvM
— Andres Lerner (@andreslerner90) March 12, 2026
Otro escándalo: información privilegiada en el INDEC intervenido. Se filtró el dato de inflación antes que se publique y se vio clarita la jugada en las apuestas online y en la demanda de instrumentos atados a inflación. pic.twitter.com/Nf0Zw7LuvM
— Andres Lerner (@andreslerner90) March 12, 2026
The allegations in Argentina join a lengthy list of Polymarket controversy over unethical bets and alleged market manipulation. Bets have been placed on nuclear war and regime change, and lawmakers have flagged concerns over insider trading.
Last year, bettors told DL News that some people may be working together to swing the outcomes in their favour.
Inflation figures
The allegations centre around a number of accounts that made bets just before official inflation data was released in Argentina.
One account in particular made a number of small bets throughout the week before the official data was released, data engineer at Blockworks, Fernando Molina, posted on X Friday.
No large bets were placed, highlighted Molina, rather punters made many small bets ahead of the official data release.
“But due to the disproportion between the amounts traded 30 minutes before versus the average daily trading volume, they’re clearly insiders,” wrote Molina.
Three wallets made bets. Two wagered $2,000 and the third bet $500, but what caught Molina’s eye was that their usual bets never exceeded $10. Until Thursday.
Hubo al menos 3 cuentas que compraron 30 minutos antes de que se supiera el dato de la inflación en Polymarket por montos muy por arriba del promedio operado.
— Fernando Molina (@fergmolina) March 13, 2026
Las ganancias son chicas porque hay poco volumen, pero son claramente insiders ? https://t.co/p8732RaCmD
Hubo al menos 3 cuentas que compraron 30 minutos antes de que se supiera el dato de la inflación en Polymarket por montos muy por arriba del promedio operado.
— Fernando Molina (@fergmolina) March 13, 2026
Las ganancias son chicas porque hay poco volumen, pero son claramente insiders ? https://t.co/p8732RaCmD
Polymarket shows that bets on inflation being 2.9% in the month of February surged on the website the afternoon official data was released. A total of $27,885 was wagered.
Data released by Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) showed Thursday that the South American country’s inflation rate was 2.9% in February, slightly above analysts’ expectations of 2.7%.
