Three of the world's major central banks are expected to hold interest rates this week, with the Federal Reserve concluding its two-day meeting Wednesday and the Bank of England and European Central Bank both deciding on Thursday.
The convergence of holds comes as energy prices - driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East - complicate the inflation outlook across all three economies, and has prompted some analysts to note Bitcoin (BTC) relative price strength against major fiat currencies during the period.
The Fed, which cut rates three times in the final quarter of 2025, is widely expected to pause. Markets are pricing in just one additional cut for the full year, a shift from earlier consensus.
The Bank of England, which has held at 3.75% since December 2025, faces a similar calculus - markets that had assigned a 90% probability to a March cut have now priced that below 30%, according to MoneyWeek.
Rate Expectations
The ECB last held rates at 2% in February, and Deutsche Bank's base case calls for no further moves through 2026.
For the BoE, Deutsche Bank's UK economist Sanjay Raja warned that persistent energy prices could push UK inflation close to 4% by year-end, against the Bank's 2% target. UK CPI stood at 3% in January, down from 3.4% in December 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics.
ING noted that it has pushed back its BoE March cut call, retaining a forecast for two cuts this year but contingent on oil prices receding from current levels.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has modelled a scenario where the base rate rises back to 4.5% if energy costs remain elevated for twelve months.
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Bitcoin's Response
Bitcoin was trading near $74,000 at time of writing, up approximately 5% week-on-week per CoinGecko data, briefly touching $76,000 in early Monday trading - its highest level since early February.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, said the macro backdrop had "supported BTC/EUR, with Bitcoin holding strong above €65,000," pointing to institutional positioning in digital assets as a hedge against fiat uncertainty.
"This 'higher-for-longer' stance may temper short-term risk-on sentiment, but it continues to support Bitcoin's positioning as a non-sovereign store of value," Zhang told CryptoPotato.
The view that Bitcoin benefits from rate paralysis is a recurring thesis in institutional circles, though its correlation with macro conditions has varied considerably across cycles.
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