Bitcoin’s weekly close below the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,300 has rattled market participants, with multiple analysts now calling for a deeper sell-off in the weeks ahead.
BTC/USD was trading around $71,190 at the time of writing, roughly 6% above its intraday low of $67,300, but the failed weekly close above the key trend line has left the bitcoin price looking structurally weak.
Wedge breakdown and untapped lows
Analyst Jelle flagged the technical breakdown over the weekend, writing on X:
“$BTC broke down from the rising wedge over the weekend. Consolidate here for a day or two, and those untapped lows look ripe for the taking.”
The untapped lows Jelle referenced sit between the local low of $65,500 and the range low of $59,930 reached on Feb. 6.
Analyst Stockmoney Lizards pointed to broader macro uncertainty compounding the technical picture:
“BTC has lost the EMA50 once again, and the global crisis feels more insecure today than it did 2 weeks ago. It looks like we could be revisiting the sub-$60K area.”
$46K bear flag target
Analyst Michael J. Kramer put a specific number on the downside risk, writing:
“Bitcoin is getting close to taking that next leg lower into the mid-$40Ks.”
Kramer was referencing the measured move target of a bear flag pattern, pointing to around $46,600.
These calls align with prediction market odds, which currently price in a 70% chance bitcoin drops below $55,000 in 2026, and a 46% chance it falls below $45,000.
Deep structural support at $47K
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the 200-week EMA at $68,300 coincides with the realized price of the largest holder cohort — wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC.
Adler Jr. warned:
“A move below this level would signal deteriorating structure and increase the likelihood of a more nervous reaction from large holders.”
The realized price of the smaller 10–100 BTC cohort sits around $46,700, which Adler Jr. described as a “deep structural threshold” that would only become meaningful in the event of a full-scale deterioration in market regime.
