Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said Tuesday that Bitcoin (BTC) has likely found its trough and is heading higher, reiterating a $150,000 year-end price target as the asset trades near $71,000 - roughly 44% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,210.
In the same note, Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating and $450 price target on Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, implying 226% upside from Monday's close of $138.20.
The note pushes back against widespread concerns that the 50% drawdown would force Strategy to liquidate Bitcoin. The opposite has occurred: Strategy has added approximately 89,600 Bitcoin year-to-date through the downturn, tracking toward its second-largest quarterly acquisition since it began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020.
STRC: The Preferred That Changed the Math
Central to Bernstein's thesis is Strategy's preferred equity instrument, STRC. The note said Strategy raised $2.1 billion from STRC year-to-date, including $1.2 billion in a single week ending March 15. It deployed approximately $2.2 billion of that capital to acquire roughly 29,400 Bitcoin.
STRC pays 11.5% in annual dividends and carries a perpetual structure that, in Bernstein's assessment, lets Strategy accumulate Bitcoin without diluting common shareholders. Trading volumes in the instrument rose 65% over the past three months.
Preferred instruments now constitute $10 billion of Strategy's $18 billion in total debt and preferred equity.
Strategy's balance sheet holds $56 billion in Bitcoin and cash against $18 billion in liabilities. Cash reserves alone cover annual dividend and interest obligations for approximately 25 months.
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ETF Flows and the Iran Conflict
Bernstein cited two catalysts for its bottoming call. Bitcoin ETFs reversed year-to-date outflows, with $2.2 billion in inflows over four weeks, leaving net outflows at just $364 million against a $90 billion asset base.
ETFs now hold 6.1% of total Bitcoin supply.
Separately, Bernstein noted Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 25% since the onset of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, which began February 28. The firm cited Bitcoin's cross-border portability and censorship resistance as relevant during periods of geopolitical stress.
Strategy's shares traded near $138 on Tuesday, down roughly 58% over six months.
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