Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized near $70,000 after a sharp selloff to roughly $67,000, but on-chain and derivatives data compiled by Glassnode in its Week 12, 2026 report suggest the rebound is driven more by selective dip-buying than broad demand returning at scale.
Spot volumes remain subdued, perpetual funding rates are still negative, and a heavy cluster of short-term holder supply overhead creates a structural ceiling on any sustained advance.
US spot ETF flows have turned modestly positive - the clearest near-term improvement - though the magnitude remains small relative to prior accumulation phases.
Bitcoin has printed higher lows since early March within a $60,000–$70,000 range. A new accumulation cluster is forming within that corridor, but Glassnode notes its size remains modest, leaving the developing support at approximately $70,200 - the one-week to one-month cohort's cost basis - vulnerable.
The one-month to three-month cohort carries a cost basis of roughly $82,200, which Glassnode identifies as the key overhead resistance level defining the mid-term range.
The Overhead Problem: $93K–$97K Supply Cluster
The more pressing structural constraint sits further above. A dense concentration of short-term holder supply accumulated between approximately $93,000 and $97,000 establishes a meaningful resistance zone that could amplify sell pressure whenever price attempts to recover toward those levels.
Glassnode's Relative Unrealized Loss metric has stabilized above 15% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization - a reading comparable to conditions seen in Q2 2022 - reflecting elevated fear without reaching the acute capitulation levels observed during events such as the FTX collapse.
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Profit-Taking Has Nearly Dried Up
Entity-Adjusted Realized Profit, a measure of genuine profit-taking across the network, has collapsed from a peak of approximately $3 billion per day in July 2025 to below $100 million per day currently - a decline of more than 96%.
Glassnode characterizes contractions of this magnitude as consistent with a bear market entering its later stages, where the pool of profitable sellers has been largely depleted.
While reduced sell-side pressure is a constructive development in isolation, it equally reflects the absence of fresh capital inflows needed to sustain any meaningful recovery.
Derivatives Positioning Stays Defensive Into Key Expiry
Perpetual funding rates remain negative across exchanges, reflecting a persistent short bias even as Bitcoin prices stabilize. The 25 delta skew on Deribit sits between 10% and 12% across maturities - put-skewed throughout the curve - indicating broad-based hedging demand rather than localized front-end caution.
An estimated $10 billion in dealer short gamma is set to expire Friday, March 27, in a combined weekly, monthly, and quarterly expiry.
Glassnode notes that once this positioning rolls off, price is likely to become less constrained by hedging flows and more responsive to macro conditions.
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