Bitcoin buyers made a tepid comeback on Monday, pushing BTC to an intraday high of $67,860, but analysts say the bear market remains intact with several models pointing to a potential bottom well below $50,000.
Bitcoin’s path of least resistance
With $69,000–$70,000 flipping to resistance, short-term momentum has turned bearish.
Telegram trading resource Technical Crypto Analyst warned:
“Unless price quickly reclaims $69K–$70K, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the $65K demand zone.”
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe echoed the caution, saying a breakout above $71K would be needed for any bullish confirmation, but also flagged a possible scenario:
“A classic little sweep to $65K just before the push upwards would signal that we’re going to get that momentum.”
Analyst Kyle Chassé pointed to the Bitcoin fear and greed index still sitting in extreme fear territory, with order books skewed toward shorts, as further evidence the market leans toward more downside.
Where could bitcoin bottom?
Bitcoin has now fallen 46% from its $126,000 all-time high, and the cost basis of short-term holders has dropped from $113,500 to $83,200.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson noted that the lower band of the short-term holder realized price has moved lower, suggesting:
“Bitcoin may form a bottom around $50K or slightly below.”
Analyst Willy Woo placed the likely bottom range between bitcoin’s realized price of $54,000 and the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) floor at $45,500, stating:
“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between $46K–54K.”
The MVRV and price drawdown data reinforce this picture, with the current cycle’s correction now among the deepest since 2022, according to analysts.
Fibonacci levels and bear flag targets
Crypto analyst Crypto Jelle noted that Bitcoin’s bear market lows have historically formed between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, which currently sit at $57,600 and $39,000 respectively.
A separate bear flag breakdown analysis, tracking the Bitcoin long-term power law and historical cycle patterns, has produced price targets as low as $41,000 for the final low of this cycle.
The Bitcoin monthly RSI has also moved into territory consistent with prior bear market bottoms, adding weight to the $40K–$50K range as a plausible floor, according to analysts.
