Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck in a $60,000–$70,000 range with 8.4 million coins underwater, long-term holders realizing $200M in daily losses, and no clear catalyst in sight.
Glassnode Report: Supply Overhang Weighs on BTC
Glassnode analysts Chris Beamish, CryptoVizArt, and Antoine Colpaert published the findings on Apr. 1. The report identifies a dense supply cluster between $80,000 and $126,000 — coins acquired near cycle highs that are now deeply underwater.
The authors draw a direct parallel to Q2 2022. Back then, roughly 3 million BTC had to change hands before Bitcoin could reclaim its cycle mid-line.
The same redistribution process appears to be playing out now, with approximately 8.4 million coins sitting at a loss on a 30-day average basis.
Long-term holders — those who bought more than six months ago — have been selling at a loss at a rate of around $200M per day since November 2025. The report identifies a cooldown below $25M per day as the key threshold before any durable base formation becomes possible.
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Coinbase Demand, Marathon BTC Sales Shift Market Structure
Spot demand is showing early signs of recovery. Coinbase Spot Volume Delta — a measure of net buying versus selling on the exchange — has turned marginally positive after months of negative readings through January and February.
The report cautions that the uptick is still modest. Historically, durable recoveries have required sustained positive spot flow, not brief bursts of buying.
On the corporate side, the picture is less uniform. Marathon has sold roughly 15,000 BTC, making it one of the most visible examples of a corporate treasury reducing exposure.
Strategy remains the only consistent large-scale buyer, though the report notes that dependence on a single participant makes the corporate bid a weaker structural support than it was earlier in the cycle.
Options, Volatility Data Point to Fragile Setup
Derivatives markets tell a similarly cautious story. The Perpetual Market Directional Premium — a gauge of long-biased leverage in futures — has compressed to near zero, signaling that speculative positioning has been largely unwound.
Implied volatility has also dropped across maturities, with one-week at-the-money IV at 51% and three-month IV at 49%. That compression reflects reduced demand for options exposure in the near term.
But the report flags a concern: realized volatility sits at 38% on a one-week basis, leaving an 11-point gap between implied and realized vol that has persisted for over three weeks.
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