It’s “practically inevitable” that Clarity passes into law, says exchange chief.
61% of Polymarket users now think the bill will pass, down from over 90%.
Senator says banking committee will work on Clarity in coming weeks.
Industry executives say they expect the Clarity Act, a proposed regulatory framework for the US crypto sector, to pass the Senate in the near future.
But users of the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket do not share their optimism, with the chances of passage sliding by the day on both platforms.
“The passing of the Clarity Act is practically inevitable, given the current alignment between long-standing traditional banking institutions and younger crypto ones,” Stephan Lutz, CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, told DL News.
The bill has already passed Congress, but has reached an impasse in the Senate Banking Committee, with disagreements about whether stablecoins should pay interest proving divisive.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Experts warn that failing to pass the bill would jeopardise the US’ leadership role in the global crypto industry.
And time is running out. The midterm elections in November could see Democrats reclaim the House and the Senate. If that happens, then it will be much harder for the administration to pass any bill into law.
‘The bigger picture’
Lutz dismissed the idea that the stablecoin yield question could derail the bill’s progress.
“While some stablecoin issuers are pushing back to protect their native yield models, that’s a small business sector compared to the bigger picture,” Lutz said. “All parties, regardless of background or standing, are looking to accelerate the industry. It’s a rare moment where different parties are coming together for the same purpose.”
The pro-crypto Senator Bill Hagerty said the committee was “very close” to starting work on the bill.
He spoke of a timeline that would see Senators work on Clarity “over the next several weeks.”
“There are several issues still outstanding,” Hagerty said. “I think none of them are insurmountable and we will get to a point [...] in April that we will have it out of the banking committee.”
“The political will [to pass Clarity] is there in a way I genuinely haven’t seen before on a market structure bill,” Pierre Person, CEO of the blockchain firm Steady Labs, told DL News. “There’s real momentum.”
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Midterms approaching
Not everyone is upbeat on Clarity’s chances, however. One expert recently said the chances of the bill passing are “diminishing by the day.” And a Republican candidate for the Senate said that the fast-approaching midterms could soon detract attention from Clarity.
On Polymarket, users are losing confidence, currently giving the bill a 61% chance of passing before the end of 2026.
That’s down from 67% on Sunday.
On Kalshi, users have given the bill a 52% chance of passing before year’s end, down from a January 20 high of over 90%.
Tim Alper is a News Correspondent at DL News. Got a tip? Email him at tdalper@dlnews.com.
