JD Vance left Pakistan after 21 hours of negotiations without reaching an agreement with Iran. Bitcoin broke below its 50 SMA.
Key Takeaways
BTC drops back under $72,000.
Vance left Pakistan without a deal after 21 hours of talks.
Hormuz strait remains a point of “serious disagreement”.
RSI at 36.
Trump: “makes no difference to me” whether a deal is reached.
What Happened
According to CNN, JD Vance announced Sunday that his negotiating team was leaving Pakistan without reaching a deal, ending 21 hours of direct US-Iran talks that represented the highest-level face-to-face engagement between Washington and Tehran in decades. The talks addressed the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear development, war reparations, and sanctions. None of those issues reached resolution.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that the Strait of Hormuz remains among the main points of serious disagreement. Iranian foreign ministry had warned before the talks that success depended on Washington avoiding what it called excessive demands. Netanyahu, who was not present at the talks, said Israel remains committed to fighting Iran regardless of any US-Iran framework. Trump told reporters outside the White House that it made no difference to him whether a deal was reached.
That last statement is the most market-relevant detail in the overnight news. A US president expressing indifference to the outcome removes the expectation of urgent re-engagement. Without that urgency, the timeline for Hormuz reopening extends, and with it, the timeline for the oil price relief that the market needs to restore rate cut expectations.
What the Chart Shows
Bitcoin dropped from above $73,000 to a low of $71,400, before getting back to $71,700 at the time of writing – the sharpest single-session decline since the ceasefire spike on April 8. The move broke the 50 SMA at $72,653 for the first time since the rally began. Every prior pullback since April 6 held above that level. This one did not.
The RSI at 36.36 is the lowest reading for the past days. The signal line remains at 50.18, the gap between them is the widest also, signaling momentum has deteriorated faster than the average. Price is currently recovering slightly to $71,737 but remains $916 below the 50 SMA, which has now flipped from rising support to overhead resistance.
Key support below current price is the $71,000 to $71,200 range, the consolidation base that formed before the Islamabad talks began. If that level holds, the structure of the ceasefire rally remains technically intact, just weakened. If it fails on volume, the next meaningful support is the $68,000 range where the pre-ceasefire compression sits.
