A new paper from a pro-Ethereum group argues the world鈥檚 second-largest cryptocurrency should hit $250,000 per coin.
But it relies, in part, on an assumption that DeFi will grow over time
That assumption has been severely tested this week.
The paper also took several shots at Bitcoin and gold, calling them 鈥渄ead capital.鈥?/li>
An organisation committed to boosting Ethereum on Wall Street has revised its prediction for the world鈥檚 second-largest cryptocurrency.
Forget $80,000 Ether. One day, it could be worth a quarter-million dollars, the organisation argues in a new paper.
That figure comes from the combined market value of gold and Bitcoin 鈥?roughly $31.1 trillion, according to the paper 鈥?as well as the assumption that Ether is 鈥渂etter money鈥?than either.
With 121 million Ether in circulation, a market value of $31.1 trillion would equate to each coin trading just above $262,000.
鈥淭he path to $250,000 depends on this being understood: ETH is not a technology bet,鈥?the paper reads. 鈥淚t is a superior monetary asset with an economic property that gold and Bitcoin strictly cannot replicate: it compounds.鈥?/p>
Founded in August 2024, Etherealize has emerged as one of Ethereum鈥檚 most vocal champions on Wall Street.
Supported by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation, its mandate is simple: convince traditional financial institutions to adopt Ethereum-based products.
Etherealize鈥檚 earlier prediction, laid out last year in a paper entitled 鈥淭he Bull Case for ETH,鈥?was an attempt to change perception of Ethereum among traders who struggle to understand the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin proponents believe the world鈥檚 biggest cryptocurrency is 鈥渄igital gold,鈥?the earlier paper noted. Ether should be understood as 鈥渄igital oil powering the digital economy.鈥?/p>
The latest paper takes a new tack, positioning Ether as a bearer asset, like gold or Bitcoin, but one that comes with the benefit of yield.
鈥淧roductive money will outcompete dead capital,鈥?it reads.
Citing nineteenth-century economist Carl Menger, the paper states that any quality monetary asset must be scarce, fungible, divisible, portable, durable, verifiable, and censorship resistant. It must also have an established history and low carrying cost.
鈥淓TH matches or exceeds gold and Bitcoin on every one except established history,鈥?the paper reads, calling the cryptocurrency 鈥淭he first monetary asset that compounds without counterparty risk.鈥?/p>
Some of its arguments will be familiar to any Ethereum bull.
Bitcoin security comes from miner revenue, and Bitcoin transactions are not expected to compensate for the regular halving of block rewards. That will leave the network vulnerable to a 51% attack, the paper claims.
Moreover, Bitcoin developers鈥?resistance to making protocol changes means they will be slow to react to that and other threats, such as quantum computers. Concentration within the Bitcoin mining sector challenges its status as a censorship-resistant asset.
And, of course, unlike gold, Ether can be taken or sent anywhere so long as its destination has internet access and its owners remember their wallets鈥?12-word seed phrase.
But the paper also argues that Ether has a higher floor than gold or Bitcoin, courtesy of decentralised finance.
Using another metaphor, the paper compares Ethereum to a toll road leading to the world of decentralised finance.
But that value proposition has taken a hit this month. Since April 1, more than $606 million in crypto has been lost to hacks, according to DefiLlama data. And the latest hack has severely affected Aave, the largest DeFi protocol, leading to dramatic outflows and a crisis of confidence within the industry.
The paper doesn鈥檛 provide a timeline for the $250,000 estimate, and cautions that it is 鈥渘ot a prediction.鈥?/p>
鈥淚t is a statement about what ETH would look like if the market agreed with the argument of this report,鈥?it reads. 鈥淲hether the repricing happens in five years or twenty is unknowable.鈥?/p>
Aleks Gilbert is DL News鈥?New York-based DeFi correspondent. You can reach him at聽aleks@dlnews.com.
