Grayscale has called the cycle low for Bitcoin (BTC), placing the floor in the $65,000 to $70,000 range after a 20% rebound from the Feb. 5 trough.
Grayscale's On-Chain Bottom Call
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, laid out the thesis in an Apr. 21 note, arguing that the February capitulation already ran its course.
Bitcoin bottomed near $63,000 on Feb. 5 and has since climbed to roughly $78,000.
The realized price, which tracks the average cost basis for coins moved on-chain over the past one to three months, sits around $74,000.
That figure puts the newest cohort of buyers back at breakeven. Pandl said further upside would move them into positive territory, a pattern he called an early marker of a bull trend.
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Analyst Pushback On Timing
Not every researcher agrees. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, told BeInCrypto his base case still points to October 2026, citing historical midterm-year patterns that typically take longer to resolve.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson lands in the same camp, expecting a trough in late September or early October 2026. CryptoQuant models a wider window between June and December, with September through November as the most probable period.
Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 last October before sliding more than 40%. The asset slipped under $54,000 in mid-2024 before recovering, and November 2025 saw Pandl flag early stabilization signs that preceded the February low.
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