On-chain analyst James Check argues that even a worst-case quantum attack draining Bitcoin (BTC) era coins would not collapse the market.

Quantum Threat Math

Check, founder of Checkonchain, published a report on Apr. 23 titled "Selling Satoshi's Stack." The piece, covered by CryptoPotato and Bitcoinist, breaks down the often-cited 6.9 million BTC figure linked to quantum risk.

Roughly 1.716 million BTC sit in Satoshi-era P2PK addresses, with another 214,000 BTC in Taproot wallets and 4.996 million BTC in reused addresses. Check argues that exchanges, custodians, and ETFs holding most reused-address coins will migrate before any cryptographically relevant quantum computer arrives.

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Market Absorption Capacity

Check tested the worst case: every P2PK coin stolen and dumped. His revived-supply data shows the market regularly absorbs 10,000 to 30,000 BTC daily during bull runs.

That pace means the entire Satoshi stash equals roughly 60 to 90 days of normal sell-side flow.

Check also backed the BIP-360 "hourglass" idea, capping P2PK spends at one per block and stretching the unwind across about 264 days.

The debate has sharpened since Google's March research showed quantum systems could, in theory, crack elliptic-curve keys within minutes. BTC traded near $77,556 at the time of Check's report, with the broader community still split over whether to freeze or release vulnerable coins.

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