In CLARITY Act news today, the US Senate Banking Committee is preparing to officially notice a markup for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act as soon as today (May 8), with a committee vote scheduled for May 14, the most concrete legislative timeline the bill has reached since its House passage.
Draft text has already been circulated to representatives from the banking and crypto industries, with Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks finalizing a stablecoin yield compromise that has been the primary friction point for months. Bitcoin is trading near $79,250 as the markup notice lands, with exchange outflows accelerating on anticipation of a bipartisan regulatory win.
This is not a procedural formality. A Senate Banking Committee markup is the mechanism by which legislative text is finalized, amended, and cleared for a full Senate floor vote, the step that converts a draft bill into actionable law.
For institutional crypto capital, which has been sitting on the sidelines precisely because US regulatory jurisdiction remained contested, a successful markup is the precondition for every product decision that follows.
(SOURCE: TradingView)
CLARITY Act News: What the Markup Process Actually Resolves
The Clarity Act aims to clearly define the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets, establishing that commodities fall under CFTC authority while securities remain with the SEC.
A decentralization test will determine which classification applies to a token based on its development stage. This distinction influences whether an asset can be traded on derivatives exchanges or included in specific fund structures.
On May 14, the committee will amend the bill before it goes to the full Senate. Some sections, especially those related to stablecoin yields, are still under negotiation, as banks fear they could affect traditional lending.
The path to enactment includes several steps, such as reconciliation with other bills, a 60-vote threshold for Senate passage, and a presidential signature.
White House advisor Patrick Witt and Senator Bernie Moreno indicated that President Trump could sign the bill by July 4. Polymarket currently gives a 71% chance of the bill being enacted by 2026, a significant increase from earlier projections.
(SOURCE: Polymarket)
Why Institutional Crypto Has Been Waiting for Exactly This Moment
The key obstacle for institutional crypto investment has been regulatory ambiguity rather than risk appetite. Compliance departments at pension funds and major asset managers need clear definitions of commodities versus securities to proceed.
This lack of clarity has led to significant capital flight, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted, with blockchain firms relocating to places like Singapore due to unclear US regulations.
Senator Cynthia Lummis emphasized the urgency of passing the Clarity Act before the 2030 deadline, while Alex Thorn from Galaxy Research noted the shrinking legislative calendar.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev noted that there is strong momentum to achieve regulatory clarity, which could help maintain American leadership in digital finance. The Clarity Act is now viewed as a key assumption for compliant capital investment.
democrats, republicans, and independents — people across the spectrum want congress to pass CLARITY and they want them to pass it NOW
we must codify innovation and investor protection in federal law to promote american dynamism & U.S. capital markets for decades to come ?? ? https://t.co/RvlSSenUXx
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) May 7, 2026
Bull, Base, Bear: Three Paths for Institutional Capital From Here
Bull Case: The May 14 markup successfully resolves stablecoin yield language, allowing the bill to reach the Senate before Memorial Day. It secures a 60-vote majority and presidential approval by July 4, prompting major firms like JPMorgan and BlackRock to develop products. CFTC classification of ETH and SOL as derivatives reduces regulatory risks, with institutional crypto AUM exceeding $500Bn by Q4 2026.
Base Case: The markup proceeds with minor amendments, and stablecoin yield negotiations are ongoing. The bill reached the Senate in June amid competing priorities, with a 60-vote coalition likely forming by late summer for presidential approval in August or September. Major banks begin product pipelines in Q3 2026, launching regulated crypto products by Q1 2027, with Bitcoin and ETH classified as commodities.
Bear Case: A delay from Senator Grassley’s review of Section 1960 could push voting past the midterms, with potential leadership changes reigniting jurisdictional debates. If the bill fails to pass by 2026, Polymarket odds may fall below 30%, extending institutional timelines to 2028. The outcome depends heavily on the success of the May 14 markup.
The next clean read comes on three specific dates: the official markup notice (expected by the end of this week), the May 14 committee vote, and any public statement from Senator Grassley’s office on the scope of Section 1960.
How the stablecoin rewards clause resolves will determine whether banks remain in opposition or move to neutral – and that single provision may be the difference between a 60-vote coalition and a floor stall. Watch the Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise language closely; its final form is the fulcrum on which the whole timeline turns.
