XRP (XRP) must close above $1.51 before a genuine breakout can begin, and one analyst expects the market to flush out weaker holders first.
XRP Falling Wedge Tightens At The Apex
A crypto analyst known as MichaelXBT says XRP has spent months tracing a falling wedge on its weekly chart, a structure that often points toward an upside move once price clears the upper boundary.
The coin has traded inside that wedge since July 2025, when it peaked at $3.66.
It has since shed roughly 62%, slipping to about $1.37 during a market-wide downturn that deepened in October.
The upper boundary repeatedly capped XRP's recovery attempts. Pushes near the $3 mark from September to October 2025 failed, and a January 2026 effort stalled at $2.41.
Price now sits at the narrowest part of the structure, and MichaelXBT believes the next move is close.
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Matt Hughes Flags The $1.51 Threshold
A falling wedge forms when price drifts between two downward-sloping lines that gradually converge, with selling pressure easing as the pattern matures. A close above the upper line frequently triggers a sharp rally.
That upper line currently aligns with the $1.50 to $1.51 zone.
Market commentator Matt Hughes, known as The Great Mattsby, described that area as the level XRP must clear before a breakout can be confirmed.
Hughes noted that the setup looks promising but that XRP needs weekly and monthly closes above $1.51 to validate it. The level lines up with the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement, a point the asset has failed to hold throughout the year.
The pattern alone guarantees nothing. Still, analysts who track wedges argue that price at the apex tends to force a decision in one direction.
XRP Price History Sets Up The Shakeout
MichaelXBT's warning centers less on the breakout and more on what comes first. He expects the market to drive XRP lower in a deliberate "shakeout" designed to clear retail investors who lack conviction.
Other analysts raised similar concerns earlier this spring, suggesting the next major swing could break the resolve of ordinary buyers.
That caution fits XRP's recent trajectory. After topping out near $3.66 in mid-July 2025, the token entered a prolonged correction, briefly touched $1.60 on March 17, collapsed again, and most recently failed at $1.54 on May 14.
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