The 200-week moving average for Bitcoin (BTC) has pushed past $61,000, a threshold that Blockstream chief Adam Back flagged on May 30 as evidence of a structural bull market.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin's 200-week moving average has climbed past $61,000, about $1,000 higher than its early-May reading.
- Adam Back tied the level to a Charlie Munger maxim on buying quality assets at long-term averages.
- BTC traded above $73,000, leaving a wide gap between the spot price and its rising support floor.
Bitcoin Floor Pushes Higher
The 200-week moving average smooths nearly four years of weekly Bitcoin closes, and it has held as a support floor at each prior cycle bottom. Back noted the cross on May 30, weeks after the same line topped $60,000 in early May. The reading has gained roughly $1,000 since then, a steady pace that points to long-term holders absorbing supply at these prices.
At current prices, the spot market sits well clear of that floor. BTC last traded above $73,000, more than $12,000 over the rising average. That gap has narrowed since October, when the price ran far higher before a long correction pulled it lower over the following months.
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Munger Rule Meets Bitcoin
In a follow-up post, Back pointed to a line attributed to the late Charlie Munger, the billionaire investor. The maxim holds that anyone who only ever bought quality stocks at the 200-week average would beat the S&P 500 over time. Few investors, it adds, keep that kind of discipline.
Back then added a caveat. He observed that Munger and Warren Buffett never embraced Bitcoin, comparing the miss to their early doubts about the internet. He tied both misses to their long preference for physical, brick-and-mortar businesses.
The takeaway, in Back's framing, favors patience. He has argued in earlier posts for steady accumulation near the long-term average rather than active trading. Holders who buy at those levels, he suggests, capture a discount to the broader trend.
A New York Times investigation published April 8 named Back as the most likely person behind the Satoshi Nakamoto pseudonym, a claim the cryptographer has flatly denied.
Where Bitcoin Stands Now
Not every read of the chart points up. One analyst estimated a real floor near $78,000 to $84,000 and put Bitcoin about 41% below its October high. Whether the average keeps climbing now rests on demand from funds and retail buyers outpacing sellers.
The 200-week line has rarely failed. Across three bear markets since 2015, Bitcoin held above it, and the 2022 downturn brought the only weekly close beneath the level before buyers reclaimed it. The average read near $40,000 in late 2024, which shows how far the floor has since climbed.
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