Something is happening to Bitcoin today as news reports that BTC’s highest-conviction holders have sold approximately $2.4 billion in the past two days alone. This is defined by on-chain analysis as those holding for at least 155 days, with 26% of all bitcoin sold over the past 30 days originating from investors who acquired coins above $90,000.
The moves coincide with a 12% week-to-date price decline from an October all-time high above $126,000, while spot ETF net assets have collapsed to $82.83 billion from $107.8 billion.
Source: SoSoValue
Compounding the pressure, weak US jobs data, including a February revision showing a loss of roughly 92,000 positions, triggered institutional risk-management programs that accelerated selling across high-beta assets, with Bitcoin absorbing outsized outflows relative to equities.
The analytical question is no longer whether long-term holders are capitulating; it is whether this cohort’s behavior at local lows constitutes a final cycle flush consistent with historical bottom formation, or reflects a structural deterioration in conviction that extends the bear phase well beyond what prior cycle analogs would suggest.
Bitcoin News Today: LTH-SOPR and Supply-in-Loss, What the On-Chain Data Is Actually Showing
The primary on-chain signal flagged by Compass Point analyst Ed Engel is behavioral: long-term holders were largely inactive from February through April, then turned into net sellers in recent weeks as Bitcoin approached new cycle lows.
Engel noted the shift carries “large implications on BTC’s supply/demand balances”, a transmission mechanism that is straightforward in structure but significant in timing, given that this cohort had absorbed every prior drawdown without capitulating.
The LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR), which measures whether long-term holders are realizing gains or losses on spent coins, has moved into sub-1.0 territory, confirming that a meaningful share of this cohort is now selling at a loss.
A high in long-term holder supply is hiding a bigger problem.
The buyers that drove this cycle are no longer accumulating.
Whale balances are shrinking, and dolphin growth continues to deteriorate. pic.twitter.com/mbFYYX8bKe
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) June 1, 2026
Research synthesizing Glassnode data estimates approximately 39–43% of the total bitcoin supply is currently underwater, approaching the 50–55% zone that has historically marked final cycle lows across the January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022 bottoms.
Current estimates place 11.1 million BTC in profit against 8.9 million BTC in loss, a gap that, in prior cycles, closed fully at the structural low before accumulation began.
Fidelity’s cycle analysis notes that the current drawdown from the October peak registers at roughly 52%, materially shallower than the 77–85% declines seen in earlier bear markets, yet several deep-value on-chain metrics, including MVRV Z-Score and Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss, are simultaneously flashing readings that have historically appeared only at major bottoms.
One composite metric, identified in a BeInCrypto synthesis of on-chain data, is tracking at approximately negative 1.5 standard deviations from its mean near the $62,000 level, a zone associated with prior cycle exhaustion points. Engel summarized the pattern directly: “Top-buyer capitulation is a very common theme in late-cycle bear markets. This makes us more confident that BTC’s bear market is in the late stages.”
