Arthur Hayes is doubling down on Bitcoin — labelling it the “fastest horse” — as the US pivots to save a dying Pax Americana.
In a new essay, the former BitMEX chief argues that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to reindustrialise the country will unleash trillions of dollars in new credit, stoking inflation and, of course, launching Bitcoin far above its current $115,000 price.
“Do not doubt that team Trump will use all the tricks in the book to print the money this transformation of America requires,” Hayes wrote.
Hayes’ bullish call rests on a simple thesis.
The US, he argues, is facing intense economic and geopolitical competition from a rising Eurasian bloc led by China, Russia, India, and Iran.
America’s grand strategy to preserve its global primacy will depend on aggressive credit creation, a pivot away from the services economy, and reindustrialisation. In such a system, fiat currencies like the dollar lose purchasing power, and Bitcoin, as a scarce digital asset, captures the upside.
Hayes models more than $15 trillion in combined Fed and commercial bank credit growth between now and 2028, echoing the scale of Covid-era stimulus but deployed to factories, weapons production, and heavy industry.
Bitcoin’s climb past $124,000 earlier in August to a fresh all-time high has been driven by continuing spot exchange-traded fund inflows, with over 200 corporate treasuries adding crypto to balance sheets, and a weakening US dollar.
Other top cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana also breached all-time highs in 2025, but Hayes says Bitcoin stands apart.
He warns that while many crypto treasury firms and altcoins may falter, Bitcoin’s role as digital gold and hedge against monetary debasement is cemented.
Hayes has routinely set lofty price targets for Bitcoin. In March, he predicted $250,000 Bitcoin in 2025.
As for his next prediction?
“Do I think Bitcoin will rise to $3.4 million by 2028? No,” he said.
“I believe the number will be markedly higher than the ~$115,000 that it trades at today. My goal is to get the direction of travel correct and be confident that I’m betting on the fastest horse.”
