Bitcoin’s historic rally has pushed nearly every coin in circulation into profit, igniting confidence across the market - but analysts warn the euphoria may come with short-term risks as leverage builds.
Onchain data shows that roughly 97% of Bitcoin’s supply now sits above its cost basis, reflecting how widespread gains have become since the cryptocurrency broke through $120,000. According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, such conditions typically appear during the later stages of a major upswing, when investors begin repositioning rather than selling outright.
Instead of panic-driven selling, the current cycle appears orderly. Many holders are locking in partial profits and reallocating, while new buyers are stepping in – a pattern often seen during stable phases of a bull market.
Still, the data hints at where Bitcoin might land if momentum cools. Glassnode’s analysis points to solid structural support around $117,000, where tens of thousands of coins last changed hands. The firm suggested that any dip toward this area could attract fresh buying as recent entrants defend their gains.
Leverage, however, is creeping higher. Activity in both futures and exchange-traded funds has surged, pushing funding rates upward and leaving the market more exposed to quick corrections. CoinGlass reported over $2.5 billion flowing into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs in the first half of the week alone – a record pace that underscores the intensity of institutional demand.
Analysts describe the environment as “robust but maturing.” Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, yet the combination of crowded bullish positions and soaring open interest could trigger brief volatility as traders rebalance.
At midweek, Bitcoin eased slightly to trade near $122,000 after hitting an all-time high close to $124,000. While momentum remains intact, many see the next few weeks as a test of whether this rally can maintain altitude without overheating.
For now, all eyes are on the $117,000 zone – not as a signal of weakness, but as the line where the next wave of accumulation could begin.
